It’s possible to manage the quarterly expectations by saying “we can improve metric X by 10% in a quarter”. It’s often possible to find an improvement that you’re very confident of making very quickly. Depending on how backwards the company is you may need to hide the fact that the 10% improvement required a one line change after a month of experimentation, or they’ll fight you on the experimentation time and expect that one line to take 5 minutes, after which you should write lots more code that adds no value.

Agile isn’t a good match for a business that can only think in terms of effort and not learning+value. That doesn’t make agile the problem.

My experience in an agile firm was that they hired a lot of experienced people and then treated them like juniors. Actively allergic to thinking ahead.

To get around the problem that deliverables took more than a few days, actual tasks would be salami sliced down into 3 point tickets that simply delivered the starting state the next ticket needed. None of these tickets being completed was an actual user observable deliverable or something you could put on a management facing status report.

Each task was so time boxed, seniors would actively be upbraided in agile ceremonies for doing obvious next steps. 8 tickets sequentially like - Download the data. Analyze the data. Load a sample of the data. Load all the data. Ok now put in data quality tests on the data. OK now schedule the daily load of the data. OK now talk to users about the type of views/aggregations/API they want on the data. OK now do a v0 of that API.

It's sort of interesting because we have fully transitioned from the agile infantilization of seniors to expecting them to replace a team of juniors with LLMs.