| ▲ | mcoliver 9 hours ago |
| Simultaneously they are opening up 0DTE options on certain stocks starting with large market caps but don't be surprised when this expands. Currently this was limited to large etfs like SPX. They are also extending trading hours towards 24/7 and eventually 365. How they square increasing liquidity with delaying information is insane. I know there is a lot of manipulation to make quarterly numbers and the tax code is convoluted but if companies reported dollars in and dollars out live to shareholders at least we would have an idea of how the company is doing in a general sense. And over time would learn the flow of the company and be able to make informed predictions on the overall health of the company. More information is usually better than less with very few exceptions. If they want to delay the earnings call to every 6 months to talk about the business I have no problems with that. |
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| ▲ | munificent 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > if companies reported dollars in and dollars out live to shareholders at least we would have an idea of how the company is doing in a general sense. Goodhart's law is knocking on your door right now. |
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| ▲ | mcoliver 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Help me understand what you are saying here. For those that don't know this one is "a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure". I'm not advocating for a single metric that can be gamed. A business is fundamentally about dollars in and dollars out. Maybe add receivables in there and a few other metrics from the P&L. I'm not trying to be prescriptive here on purely cash in and out. I do think there is a low friction way that companies could report daily certain metrics that over time would give their shareholders a sense of the company's health and trajectory. | | |
| ▲ | ang_cire 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Dollars/receivables in and dollars/deliverables out is just a question of rate, unless I'm missing something. If a 10 billion dollar company has a per-second dollar out/in rate of $1,000,000 due to actual organic business, a company with $2,000,000 can set up an LLC it buys and sells from, and legally 'swap' $1,000,000 a second back and forth in services "bought and sold" to mimic the appearance of the $10B company, to generate business interest/confidence/investment. That's an extreme example, but the point is that real-time money flow has nothing to do with the actual 'health' of a company. | | |
| ▲ | PowerElectronix 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Extreme? Almost every AI related stock is investing in companies that then buy their product, efectively just giving stuff for free in exchange for better quarterly numbers. | | |
| ▲ | kakacik 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | And thus we keep talking about AI bubble and when it bursts, not if it bursts | | |
| ▲ | mschuster91 an hour ago | parent [-] | | ... and how much of the stonk market and the actually legitimate economy it will take down with it. My personal opinion? The bubble burst will make 2007ff look harmless in comparison. |
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| ▲ | fc417fc802 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I'm fairly certain you're describing fraud. | | |
| ▲ | ang_cire 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It's not actually fraud if there is some ostensible service they're performing. Business units within businesses 'pay' each other for 'services' all the time. Ditto for subsidiaries. Whether something is fraud might come down to intent alone. The line between legal and illegal business transactions can be murky as hell. | | |
| ▲ | fc417fc802 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | For it to not be fraud you'd have to actually exchange services proportional to the line items. That isn't what was described. Falsifying line items to juice your numbers is fraud plain and simple. | | |
| ▲ | kortilla an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | No, there is no proportionality aspect to the law. Once you’re in the support and software subscription realm, quite vast amount of “value” can be charged for with nothing being done. | |
| ▲ | kakacik 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yet we see it happening all the time with various AI deals. | |
| ▲ | fatata123 40 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | [dead] |
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| ▲ | wbl 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | That's what all these accounting rules exist to stop. No, you can't pretend that equipment breaking doesn't happen. No, you need to account for fixing the roof etc. | |
| ▲ | jongjong 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I'm fairly certain he's describing the economy. There are so many companies like this which are just moving money around rapidly in and out with little to no actual profit. Finance sector is easily gamed. For example, anyone can become a billionaire; just start a company, issue 1 billion shares at slightly above $1 each, keep most of them for yourself; release just 10K shares to the market and then let traders trade those same shares back and forth among themselves at high frequency... With just over $10k each, they can keep moving 10k shares back and forth 10k times per day... They call it "High frequency trading." There you have it; now you have a billion dollar company with a healthy trade volume of $100 million per day... Your stock is in-demand! And you just needed to find two traders with just $10k in the bank and a trading platform with low fees... Becoming a billionaire is not that difficult. You can apply the same principle to revenue... Just increase the velocity of money in and out of your company and you can hit any financial target you want. Doesn't mean it's a solid scheme but everyone likes the numbers they're seeing. Nobody is paying attention to actual buying power. |
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| ▲ | oleganza an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Correct. These kind of metrics invite fraud exactly because they are not rooted in reality. "Money circulation" is a bad metaphor. https://oleganza.com/all/money-does-not-circulate/ |
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| ▲ | fractorial 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| SPY is an ETF and SPX is an index. The distinction is material. /ES does not trade between 5pm and 6pm ET.
SPX options aren't marked until 8:15 PM ET. It's more plausible that large caps see MWF, then MTWHF possibly. |
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| ▲ | avadodin 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Thanks. T+0 all-year-round trading is good in many ways bad in others —like losing the real investor liquidity spawning window at 09:30 EST as opposed to pure market making. Quarterly earnings were already a bad fit for many businesses so I agree with the measure to do away with them in principle. Someone proposed real-time and I think that would be a net positive if not very feasible. Yearly is a good compromise. Companies that are not profitable YoY usually have a story so they probably can avoid having to rob Peter to pay Paul. Then again, maybe everyone adapts and yearlies turn into the next quarterlies. | |
| ▲ | mcoliver 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Good additional info. I used a shortcut I figured most people would understand without getting into the weeds. | |
| ▲ | namtab00 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [flagged] | | |
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| ▲ | bizzletk 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Can you enumerate some examples of when it having less information is better than having more? |
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| ▲ | vessenes 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It’s a common complaint of value investors that boards (especially in this post-Sarbox world) are solely focused on quarterly earnings reports, to the detriment of long term strategy. One way to talk about the added and persistent value of some companies is to note that many of them have powerful, recalcitrant, or somehow anti-quarterly-cadence founders: buffet, zuck, you could make a list. | | |
| ▲ | freetanga 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Delisting and going private is always an option if you want to go at your own pace and talk to your investors 1:1. | | |
| ▲ | kolinko 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | They would not be allowed to do so - too many shareholders. That’s why e.g. SpaceX will be going public even though Elon Musk would want to keep it private |
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| ▲ | cosmicgadget 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I mean those personalities are also hyperfocused on share price. | | |
| ▲ | rogerrogerr 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes, but focused on it being the highest it possibly can _tomorrow_ or the highest it possibly can be in ten years is a huge difference. Only some executives have the ability to take actions based on a long view without being replaced by the board. Usually founders and near-founders. |
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| ▲ | ethbr1 34 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | From a company perspective, compiling a quarterly report is a non-trivial amount of effort. The company is employing additional resources (accountants) and distracting leadership (prepping talking points). I'm not firmly in one camp or the other, but it is a substantial amount of effort to release on whatever cadence the SEC mandates. | |
| ▲ | shermantanktop 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | When your decisions are driven by fear, anxiety and FOMO, knowing less can lead to fewer irrational reactions. That’s why people hide information from bad bosses. | |
| ▲ | baby 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | For the company it doesnt work well, you’re leaking too much info to competitors | | |
| ▲ | mcoliver 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Maybe. I'l am also not saying they need to say where the dollars came from, went to, or what they were for. Aggregate daily flows. Could you do some deductive reasoning to make an informed guess especially when large sums are involved? Perhaps. I am also of the (perhaps wrong) opinion that the majority of the important stuff leaks anyways, just not on a level playing field. | |
| ▲ | fc417fc802 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | If everyone is legally required to share it then we're all in the same boat. |
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| ▲ | bluecalm 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | There are multiples examples that are easy to see once you realise presenting information has a cost. For example having daily morning 2 hour long stand ups provide more information for everyone involved. It's also worse for productivity and work atmosphere. |
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| ▲ | SilverElfin 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This is a manipulation enabler. I’m surprised no one is mentioning this, but it’ll allow companies like SpaceX and Tesla to avoid scrutiny. The other changes the SEC and NASDAQ are rushing all have donors behind them. That’s how this openly corrupt administration works but it’s also how America has generally operated in the past, only to a smaller degree. |
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| ▲ | GolfPopper 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | >This is a manipulation enabler. One facet of the Trump administration that still manages to surprise me is now some action that is nakedly corrupt, or stupid, or destructive will be undertaken, and people will scramble to come up with explanations for why it might be done in good faith, or as part of some clever plan. We've been watching Donald Trump operate in national politics for over a decade (and seen him in business for far longer). Why on Earth would anyone ever give him the benefit of the doubt at this point? | |
| ▲ | mmooss 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > it’s also how America has generally operated in the past It's not. That's why we have the rules that they are recinding, and why the US has long had among the the most transparent, safest, and liquid markets in the world. Saying that 'it's always been this way' is a really concerted effort to bury one's head in the sand. | | |
| ▲ | SilverElfin 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | I was talking about the broader way things work, not necessarily for the SEC specifically - although they’re also subject to this phenomenon. Lobbying in America, and the revolving door between industry and government agencies, is a core part of American politics and economics. Long before the Trump administration. |
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| ▲ | gotwaz 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Homework - What does Shannon Information Theory say about too much info beyond channel capacity? |
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| ▲ | mcoliver 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Sure but I should add I'm not saying this should be done in place of current reporting. It should be done in addition to. I'm advocating for more transparency augmented with periodic storytelling. Over time that noise becomes the pulse of the company. Wrt Shannon, the channel capacity today vastly exceeds that of 1934 when quarterly reporting became standard. Give me more data and a filter any day over a once every 6 month black box. 6 month reporting is undersampling. | | |
| ▲ | gotwaz 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | How do we discuss Shannon if you dont tell us what your channel capacity is and how you compute it? |
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| ▲ | JSR_FDED 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I give up, what does it say? | |
| ▲ | 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | pbreit 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Maybe just allow "insider trading". |
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| ▲ | user3939382 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| No legitimate business needs
to settle trades more than once a day. |