The insiders ruin a market like this. Unlike in sports/stocks there are no rules / punishment for insider trading.

kasey_junk 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Prediction markets as a useful tool are predicated on insider information. The punters without edge are the bait incentivizing the insiders.

And in the US prediction markets are regulated like commodities which have much more lax insider rules, because again, insider trading is the point.

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cjonas 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

How is it useful when what we are seeing is insiders place massive bets immediately before the event resolves. Does gaining this information a few hours early provide value to society that offsets the impact of normalizing gambling and attaching incentives to bad outcomes of war, politics, etc.

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hrimfaxi 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> insider trading is the point

Says who?

	▲	Ajedi32 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		It's in the name: Prediction market. The point is to predict an outcome, insiders will naturally be better at that than non-insiders. Though I think where things start to get a bit more insidious is when the "insiders" have access not merely to inside information, but the ability to change the outcome. That type of insider trading should be banned IMO because it works against the purpose of prediction markets as a tool. (Though the extent to which banning that is possible though is debatable.)

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aleph_minus_one 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

If some specific prediction market can easily be manipulated by someone with insider knowledge, you better should not gamble in it.