> Did you also notice the evolution of average developers over time? I mean, if you take code from a developer ten years ago and compare it with their output now, you can see improvement.

This makes little sense to me. Yes, individual developers gets better. I've seen little to no evidence that the average developer has gotten better.

> However, LLMs might reduce that effort to zero — we just don't know how developers will look after ten years of using LLMs now.

It might reduce that effort to zero from the same people who have always invested the bare minimum of effort to hold down a job. Most of them don't advance today either, and most of them will deliver vastly better results if they lean heavily on LLMs. On the high end, what I see experienced developers do with LLMs involves a whole lot of learning, and will continue to involve a whole lot of learning for many years, just like with any other tool.

After 30 years in front of the desktop, we are processing dopamine differently.

When I speak about 10 years from now, I’m referring to who will become an average developer if we replace the real coding experience learning curve with LLMs from day one.

I also hear a lot of tool analogies — tractors for developers, etc. But every tool, without an exception, provides replicable results. In the case of LLMs, however, repeatable results are highly questionable, so it seems premature to me to treat LLMs in the same way as any other tool.