An Iraqi security source said they think it was an Iranian boat rigged with explosives.

If Iran does have underwater explosive drones, why would they boast about it and invite attacks upon that weapon and its deployment systems?

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data-ottawa 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Iran has two clear win conditions in this war: cause enough pain that the US withdraws (unlikely given the current admin), or wait until US midterms and hope the Dems secure a victory and use the war powers resolution to end the war.

The more FUD they can generate around transport in the strait of Hermuz the better for them.

Maybe they have this capability and maybe they don’t, but they are clearly able to hit these tankers with something. Ukraine has been using these drones so it’s entirely possible Iran has this tech too.

	▲	Eddy_Viscosity2 32 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		This admin does TACO all the time. A likely scenario is Iran causes economic problems, Trump chickens out and withdraws while simultaneously declaring absolute victory. Any lingering problems he blames on Rubio and hegseth.

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bigyabai 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It might have been a low-observable watercraft like the Sea Baby: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Baby

A true UUV attack is probably outside Iran's wheelhouse, but cutting-down an attack speedboat to the waterline seems very realistic.

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cyberax 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Why would it be outside of Iran capabilities? They are the ones who provided Russia with Shahed drones.

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bigyabai 2 hours ago | parent [-]

It's not impossible. Iran has connections with China, who is great at designing and manufacturing UUVs.

That said, a UUV fleet would have downsides for Iran. It's expensive, dependent on imports and an overmatch for swarm-style attacks. Attack boats are a closer fit for the "cheap/attritable" tactics we see used with Shaheds.

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cyberax an hour ago | parent [-]

I think you're overestimating the complexity of small unmanned subs. Drug traffickers are building _manned_ subs now in South American jungles.

You just need a body (plastic tube), batteries, motors, and a computer. Maybe with a "range extender" gas engine. Everything can be COTS, and Iran certainly can manufacture occasional custom components.

After all, it can manufacture centrifuges for uranium enrichment.

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bigyabai an hour ago | parent [-]

Maybe! Most of those unmanned narcosubs are cut-down speedboats hulls, to my knowledge. The truly watertight/submerged ones are few and far between; it's a lot of investment for marginal decrease in observability.

My money is still on low-observable attack craft, or a high-low mix that deprioritizes submersibles. Iran has an impressive panopoly but also has casus belli to lie out their nose. If Iran does have fully submersable UUVs, I'd expect them to be saved for a direct confrontation with the US Navy, not tankers.

I could definitely be wrong though, I don't have any insider info to work with here.

	▲	cyberax 2 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		> Most of those unmanned narcosubs are cut-down speedboats hulls, to my knowledge. Some are now fully submersible: https://insightcrime.org/news/under-radar-what-hundreds-ofna... I think it is indeed more likely that they used a low-profile boat, but I won't discount a full submersible. Or maybe a combination: a low-profile boat that uses a regular outboard gas engine to get close to the target, and then dives and attacks like a torpedo. > If Iran does have fully submersable UUVs, I'd expect them to be saved for a direct confrontation with the US Navy, not tankers. I don't think they can do serious damage to large US Navy vessels.

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CapricornNoble 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>why would they boast about it and invite attacks upon that weapon and its deployment systems?

To complicate adversary targeting priorities. If you have to shift your pre-planned bombing sorties away from, say, local Basij HQ buildings, it takes pressure off of the Iranian government. Assigning aircraft to find/fix/target/track/engage "underwater drone launch points" is probably like searching for a needle in a haystack given the size of Iran's coastline.

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an_guy 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

"If Iran has missiles why would they boast about it and invite attacks upon that weapon and its deployment systems?"

See how that doesn't make any sense?