| ▲ | aurareturn 4 hours ago |
| We're already seeing large software companies figure out that they don't need 5,000 developers. They probably only need 1,000 or maybe even fewer. However, the number of software companies being started is booming which should result in net neutral or net positive in software developer employment. Today: 100 software companies employ 1,000 developers each[0] Tomorrow: 10,000 software companies employ 10 developers each[1] The net is the same. [0]https://x.com/jack/status/2027129697092731343 [1]https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/entrepreneurial-spirit-s... |
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| ▲ | snarf21 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Don't count all those chickens before they hatch. There might be more started but do they all survive? Think back to the dot-com boom/crash for an example of where that initial gold rush didn't just magically ramp forever. There were fits and starts as the usefulness of the technology was figured out. |
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| ▲ | paxys 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Why will we need 1000 companies tomorrow to do the same thing that 100 companies are doing today? If they are really so efficient because of AI then won't 10 companies be able to solve the same problems? |
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| ▲ | aurareturn 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Because that car repair company with 3 local stores previously couldn't justify building custom software to make their business more efficient and aligned with what they need. The cost was too high. Now they might be able to. Plenty of businesses need very custom software but couldn't realistically build it before. | |
| ▲ | RHSeeger 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | What makes you think they'll be doing the same thing? | |
| ▲ | gloxkiqcza 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | There’s always more problems to be solved. Some of them just weren’t financially feasible before. |
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| ▲ | haliskerbas 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Do the booming companies pay the same as the ones who did layoffs? If you're laid off from Meta or other top tier paying company (the behemoths doing layoffs) you might have a tough time matching your compensation. |
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| ▲ | RHSeeger 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | But do they need to? If a <role X> job at a top tier company making $600k is eliminated and two <role X> jobs at a "more average" company making $300k replace it; is that really a bad thing? Clearly, there's some details being glossed over, but "one job paying more than a person really needs" being replaced by "two jobs, each paying more than a person really needs" might just be good for society as a whole. | |
| ▲ | aurareturn 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | There's likely going to be a separation between the top earners and the average. IE. If a top tier dev make $1m today, they'll make $5m in the future. If the average makes $100k today, they'll maybe make $60k. AI likely enables the best of the best to be much more productive while your average dev will see more productivity but less overall. |
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| ▲ | ap99 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| And the differentiator will be (even more than it is now) product vision since AI-enhanced engineering abilities will be more level. |
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| ▲ | small_model 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I think this is true in the short/medium term, hence the confusing picture of layoffs but growing number of tech roles overall. The limit maybe be just millions of companies with one tech person and a team of agents doing their bidding. |
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| ▲ | aurareturn 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Maybe software engineers will be like your personal lawyer, or plumber. Every business will have a software engineer on dial, whether it's a small grocery store or a kindergarten. Previously, software devs were just way too expensive for small businesses to employ. You can't do much with just 1 dev in the past anyway. No point in hiring one. Better go with an agency or use off the shelf software that probably doesn't fill all your needs. |
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| ▲ | raw_anon_1111 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Only because VC companies are throwing money at them. How many of them are actually profitable and long term sustainable |
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| ▲ | lovich 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Ah, so that explains why job growth is at a steady pace and the software industry hasn’t been experiencing net negative job growth the past year or so. How silly of me to rely on reality when it’s so obvious that AI is benefiting us all. |
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| ▲ | aurareturn 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | I think you're being sarcastic? I'm not sure. Anyways, this is the start. Companies are adjusting. You hear a lot about layoffs but unemployments. But we're in a high interest environment with disruptions left and right. Companies are trying to figure out what their strategy is going forward. I don't expect to see a boom in software developer hiring. I think it'll just be flat or small growth. | | |
| ▲ | lovich 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | I was being sarcastic. We are in negative growth, and the current leadership class keeps talking about all the people they can get rid of. Look at the Atlassian layoff notice yesterday for example where they lied to our faces by saying they were laying off people to invest more in AI but they totally aren’t replacing people with AI. |
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| ▲ | hackyhacky 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| > We're already seeing large software companies figure out that they don't need 5,000 developers. They probably only need 1,000 or maybe even fewer. Long-term, they will need none. I believe that software will be made obsolete by AI. Why use AI to build software for automating specific tasks, when you can just have the AI automate those tasks directly? Why have AI build a Microsoft Excel clone, when you can just wave your receipts at the AI and say "manage my expenses"? Enjoy your "AI-boosted productivity" while it lasts. |
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| ▲ | pixelatedindex 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Long-term, they will need none. I believe that software will be made obsolete by AI. I think this is a bit hyperbolic. Someone still needs to review and test the code, and if the code is for embedded systems I find it unlikely. For SaaS platforms you’ll see a dramatic reduction, maybe like 80% but it’ll still have a handful of devs. Factories didn’t completely eliminate assembly line workers, you just need a far fewer number to make sure the cogs turn the way it should. | | |
| ▲ | hackyhacky 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Someone still needs to review and test the code, and if the code is for embedded systems I find it unlikely. I feel like you didn't understand my comment. I am predicting that there is no code to review. You simply ask the AI to do stuff and it does it. Today, for example, you can ask ChatGPT to play chess with you, and it will. You don't need a "chess program," all the rules are built in to the LLM. Same goes for SaaS. You don't need HR software; you just need an LLM that remembers who is working for the company. Like what a "secretary" used to be. | | |
| ▲ | pixelatedindex an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | > I feel like you didn't understand my comment. I am predicting that there is no code to review. You simply ask the AI to do stuff and it does it. I didn’t, and thanks for clarifying for me. This doesn’t pass the sniff test for me though - someone needs to train the models, which requires code. If AI can do everything for you, then what’s the differentiator as a business? Everything can be in chatGPT but that’s not the only business in existence. If something goes wrong, who is gonna debug it? Instead of API requests you would debug prompt requests maybe. We already hate talking to a robot for waiting on calls, automated support agents, etc. I don’t think a paying customer would accept that - they want a direct line to a person. I can buy the argument that the backend will be entirely AI and you won’t need to be managing instances of servers and databases but the front end will absolutely need to be coded. That will need some software engineering - we might get a role that is a weird blend of product + design + coding but that transformation is already happening. Honestly the biggest change I see is that the chat interface will be on equal footing with the browser. You might have some app that can connect to a bunch of chat interfaces that is good at something, and specializations are going to matter even more. It was a bit of a word vomit so thanks for coming to my TED Talk. | |
| ▲ | aurareturn an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Because AI agents are tool users. Why does AI need to research 2026 tax code changes and then try to one-shot your taxes when it can just use Turbotax to do it for you? Turbotax has the latest 2026 tax changes coded into the app. I'd feel much more confident if AI uses Turbotax to do my taxes than to try to one-shot it. |
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| ▲ | esseph 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Why use AI to build software for automating specific tasks, when you can just have the AI automate those tasks directly? Speed, cost, security, job/task management Next question | | |
| ▲ | hackyhacky 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Speed, cost, security, job/task management All of that will inevitably be solved. 50 years ago, using a personal computer was an extravagant luxury. Until it wasn't. 30 years ago, carrying a powerful computer in your pocket was unthinkable. Until it wasn't. Right now, it's cheaper to run your accounting math on dedicated adder hardware. But Llms will only get cheaper. When you can run massive LLMs locally on your phone, it's hard to justify not using it for everything. | | |
| ▲ | esseph an hour ago | parent [-] | | Not until power access/generation is MUCH cheaper. Long, long, long way off. If I can run 50,000 fixed tasks that cost me $0.834/hr but OpenAI is costing $37/hr and the automation takes 40x as long and can make TERRIBLE errors why the fuck would I not move to the deterministic system? Also, battery life of mobile devices. |
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