I'm re-running some of the Fed's stress tests and, somehow, still find myself flabbergasted that DB is at the top of my risk list. Despite only having $12bn of exposure, if they see a 60% loss on that risk alone (assuming 60% recovery and 1.5x leverage), they breach their 4.5% capital requirement. That's the lowest threshold I'm finding across all of the banks the Fed stress tests.

Now 50% loss means wipe out. But given the size of the portfolio, there is also the concentration risk. A single private-credit firm going bust shouldn't take out a bank. But that seems–seems!–to be what I'm seeing.

Time to short them?