> The Iranian goal is very clear: they don't want to sign an agreement and be attacked again in three months or one year.

Yes, of course they want to continue to do what they've been doing and not be attacked for that. Yet it is just not possible. Iran's current regime overall main goal is the spread of Islamic Revolution. Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis - these are typical metastasis of that spread. Terrorist acts, highly visible ones, is one of the effective tools of such a spread, and that way the terrorist acts are rational in the minds of Iran's regime and their above mentioned metastatic followers. There is no security framework possible which would still allow such a spread.

"Reichstag fire" attempts are definitively a legitimate concern. But as Ukraine has demonstrated, all you need to get a drone army deep into a country attacking you is a regular shipping container.

The drones Iran are using are actually relatively small, you can fit 5 of them into a medium sized truck and they can launch in-situ, which is how they've been using them in ground operations. Doesn't seem that much of a stretch to put a bunch of them into shipping containers.

They were flying over military installations, if they were anyone else's drones, they would have been shot down like the weather balloons that spook the government from time to time.

They were Palantir apparently.

>why would they launch drones to California rather than some place like DC or NY. It's a long distance.

Because they allegedly have a ship already in the Pacific loaded with drones.

DC and NY are way too far from Iran to launch any kind of attack; the only attack they can possibly do is from a ship, and ships can be anyplace where there's deep enough water.

If they were going to do it, it would probably look a lot like Ukraine's spiderweb attack.

However if they were going/able to do it, they probably wouldn't warn everyone and ruin the element of surprise, they would just do it.

I’ve been seeing stuff saying China is a big customer of Iranian oil, so maybe there are oil tankers heading to China from Iran. No idea if that is actually the case though. I wonder if that Flexport shipping map that was shared here recently has any info?

Yeah that makes no sense. only thing I've heard is they have connections to some cartels in south america. venezuela is gone but I suppose they could hire some local talent and get close enough?

Seems like a really dumb idea right now, unless maybe as a last resort if Trump decides to drop tactical nukes or something