There's a pattern I've noticed where relatively smart religious-adjacent people will attempt to fit things that are clearly from a religious-bent-of-mind into the structure that they believe will sell the idea to people not of that mind. I think this is one such thing.

In fact, it appears to be a recurrence of the pattern that is perhaps the most common religious view for "why do people no longer have children": "it is because they don't have purpose". Usually explicitly, and often implicitly we are informed that some religion (or any religion, occasionally) has purpose. One can then dress up these arguments in the language of other philosophy - and perhaps that is the way to buttress them - but it doesn't change the fundamental idea.

To lean harder into the aspects of my 'formation' by contrast, I think one can seek more parsimonious views. My personal pet theory is that it's all opportunity cost. Here are the assumptions:

# The joy inherent to being a parent is prosperity-independent

# Benefit from the rest of society is positive-correlated to prosperity

# Late gestation and the early stages of parenthood affect the ability to access benefit from society

So you can vary the outcome by varying the parameters:

* Make a society richer, c.p., and you miss out on more things

* Make a society more culturally oriented around families and you reduce the impact of #3

* Pay people to substitute for parental responsibilities and you reduce the impact of #3

* Remove individual freedom and a reckoning of utility no longer determines fertility

I did not know that parents in higher-income groups in the same education stratum have higher fertility. It's not obvious which way the coin lands on that, admittedly. Years off work are more costly the more successful your career. But also if you're sufficiently successful, you have access to more resources that permit you still access society's utility. Certainly my friends pay $90k for a nanny and you're not going to get that unless you hit some level of income.

Anyway, I have a lovely daughter, and I am eager to have another. I think it is a greatly enjoyable experience to parent, and I suspect there is some aspect to sociocultural contagion here because women have told my wife "watching how cute your baby is has made want one too" and things like that.

Here's a blog post about the opportunity cost thing to make it clear I didn't just come up with it as a middle-brow dismissal in reaction (if it is middle-brow it is wholly so ex nihilo)

https://wiki.roshangeorge.dev/w/Blog/2025-02-14/Fertility_Ra...

And here's a little bit more about what it's like to walk around as a father in a city with some of the fewest children per capita in the US.

https://wiki.roshangeorge.dev/w/Blog/2025-08-06/The_Latent_D...

Regarding the latent demand topic, I don’t think it’s quite demand. It’s just vocalizing that someone else’s kid is cute. They may say they want one but they really don’t, so that’s not demand. It’s no different than seeing a puppy and saying “I want one” in a baby voice. That’s not latent demand. Because most likely they’ve already forgotten about your cute puppy 5 minutes later or when they think through all the inconveniences owning a puppy will introduce to their life, they realize they don’t actually want one bad enough.

I think it’s opportunity cost as well but more specifically in the sense of greed. People are greedy about living their best lives as an individual they don’t want to have to put someone else’s needs above theirs.

In a sense, the long period of wealth and stability the western world has experienced has pushed all of the seven deadly sins to their extremes. I think there’s a reason why these things are commonly labeled as sins and discouraged by most religions, it speaks somewhat of the purpose of religion, and it’s to help humanity function as a society given our natural tendencies are rather destructive. This is the pattern you’ve described, or underlying.