This is a pretty interesting report.

The TL;DR is that there is little measurable impact (and I'd personally add "yet").

To quote:

"We find no systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022, though we find suggestive evidence that hiring of younger workers has slowed in exposed occupations"

My belief based on personal experience is that in software engineering it wasn't until November/December 2025 that AI had enough impact to measurably accelerate delivery throughout the whole software development lifecycle.

I have doubts that this impact is measurable yet - there is a lag between hiring intention and impact on jobs, and outside Silicon Valley large scale hiring decisions are rarely made in a 3 month timeframe.

The most interesting part is the radar plot showing the lack of usage of AI in many industries where the capability is there!

> My belief based on personal experience is that in software engineering it wasn't until November/December 2025 that AI had enough impact to measurably accelerate delivery throughout the whole software development lifecycle.

Gemini 3 and Opus 4.6 were the "woah, they're actually useful now!" moment for me.

I keep saying to colleagues that it's like a rising tide. Initially the AIs were lapping around our ankles, now the level of capability is at waist height.

Many people have commented that 50% of developers think AI-generated code is "Great!" and 50% think its trash. That's a sign that AI code quality is that of the median developer. This will likely improve to 60%-40%, then 70%-30%, etc...