| ▲ | burkaman a day ago |
| He presumably did not have access to the court's opinion before it was released, but he did have access to internal White House legal opinions before the tariffs were announced ("Mr. President this is illegal and very likely to be overturned by the courts"), and he obviously had access to the entire federal legal team during the court cases. I can't prove that there was any White House advisory memo before the tariffs were announced, but hypothetically, would this not be considered material nonpublic information? It seems the same as a corporate insider dumping stock because a company lawyer privately told them "we're definitely going to lose this case". |
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| ▲ | gruez a day ago | parent | next [-] |
| >I can't prove that there was any White House advisory memo before the tariffs were announced, but hypothetically, would this not be considered material nonpublic information? Was the hypothetical "White House advisory memo" produced using any proprietary information? If not, why should it be any different than if I hired a bunch of top lawyers to produce a private report for me? |
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| ▲ | mandevil a day ago | parent | next [-] | | Because this hypothetical memo was paid for by our tax dollars, not your own private money! That means it belongs to the American people, not individuals for their private gain. Using it for your own gain would be theft from the American public. In this hypothetical case, of course. There is no evidence that such a memo exists. But if it did... | | |
| ▲ | jMyles a day ago | parent | next [-] | | > That means it belongs to the American people, not individuals for their private gain. This is a strong case that there ought not to be any such thing as a secret opinion or confidential advice from the White House OLC - and I agree with that opinion if that's what you're saying. But it doesn't transform the information contained therein to nonpublic. I'm not saying this whole thing wasn't a total scumbag move - it was - but it's not quite the same crime as insider trading. | | |
| ▲ | hvb2 a day ago | parent | next [-] | | > But it doesn't transform the information contained therein to nonpublic. The legal opinion itself was non public? If they couldn't use that they would first have to put up the money to pay the legal fees to find out how likely their bet was to pay off. And just to put this in writing too, I would be shocked if we don't find out later that a lot of the volatility was a way for a few people to make a lot of money. You can make a lot of money when there's more volatility. So all the flip flopping on tariffs yes/no might very well be manipulating markets... | |
| ▲ | hnfong a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | Not saying you're wrong, but note that in general attorney-client privilege is kind of important as well. |
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| ▲ | airstrike a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | A travesty, to be sure, but not insider trading. |
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| ▲ | burkaman a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yes, because it was produced by the same people that are going to argue the case in court. You can hire the best lawyers in the world but they will still have to speculate on what arguments the government is going to make, and whether there are confidential communications showing evidence that there was some consistent rational justification for the tariffs and not just the president's public posts that leader X was mean to him on the phone so he imposed a tariff. | |
| ▲ | Ajakks a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | What a week argument - your still making excuses for this nonsense. Ridiculous. |
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| ▲ | phkahler a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| So a Whitehouse insider is going to get a bunch of tarrif refund money? |
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| ▲ | vel0city a day ago | parent [-] | | Not just a Whitehouse insider, the guy actively doing the policy he was probably being advised was illegal and would be overturned. And also probably one of the guys most pushing for this policy which was probably advised would likely be overturned. Tariff policy is ultimately implemented by the Secretary of Commerce. This isn't some random other staffer in the Whitehouse that heard these policies wouldn't go, it was the guy actively doing it likely stands to make significant financial gains for his actions being found to be illegal. The level of corruption on that is just absolutely mindblowing. |
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| ▲ | bryanrasmussen a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| >but he did have access to internal White House legal opinions before the tariffs were announced yes but the opinion that it was illegal was the received wisdom by everybody with any sort of legal expertise in the subject. It would have been completely insane if the white house staff didn't believe the same. So I guess I'm actually surprised at the white house staff believing what everybody else did? |
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| ▲ | rayiner a day ago | parent [-] | | > yes but the opinion that it was illegal was the received wisdom by everybody with any sort of legal expertise in the subject That isn’t true and you should really question whatever news source told you that. Putting aside that it was 6-3 in the Supreme Court. It was a 7-4 decision in the en banc Federal Circuit, with two Obama appointees voting in favor of upholding the tariffs. The lower appellate court opinions amounted to 127 pages: https://www.cafc.uscourts.gov/opinions-orders/25-1812.OPINIO.... You don’t get cross-party splits like that on issues where “everybody with any sort of legal expertise in the subject” agrees. If anyone with legal expertise was telling you that this issue was simple, they’re probably not very good at their job. |
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| ▲ | rayiner a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| You’re piling speculation on speculation. First of all, there was no such memo saying the tariffs were “very likely to be overturned.” The Supreme Court decision was 7-3, with two Bush appointees voting to uphold the tariffs. The appellate court decision was 7-4, with two Obama appointees and two Bush appointees dissenting. Second of all, there is no evidence that this legal analysis was leaked to Cantor. |
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| ▲ | Ajakks a day ago | parent | next [-] | | Who cares? The Treasury Secretary shouldn't have family profiting off fixing illegal policy the Treasury Secretary enacted. That should never happen. It is wrong, it doesn't explicitly spelled out. | | |
| ▲ | vel0city a day ago | parent [-] | | Commerce* Secretary. Lutnick is the Secretary of Commerce which implements tariff policy. Bessent is the Treasury Secretary. |
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| ▲ | burkaman a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The two answers I'm hearing to my question so far are that either this decision was so obvious that anyone could have predicted it without insider information, or that this was a split decision that the administration could not have predicted ahead of time. You're right that maybe there never was any internal memo, just thought this was funny. | |
| ▲ | tzs 20 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Wait...how do we know there was no such memo? We have no reason to believe that if such a memo exists it was used improperly, but I don't see how we could know there is no such memo. BTW you've got an extra Justice on the Supreme Court. Should be 6-3, not 7-3. | | |
| ▲ | rayiner 17 hours ago | parent [-] | | > but I don't see how we could know there is no such memo. There was no such memo because OLC isn’t full of dummies. Maybe the talking heads on CNN said the case against the tariffs was a slam dunk, but you don’t get split courts at multiple levels for cases that are slam dunks. |
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| ▲ | danielmarkbruce a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| White House legal opinions aren't any better than other legal opinions. Opinions are not "information". |
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| ▲ | burkaman a day ago | parent | next [-] | | I understand your position but I disagree. If I were trying to predict whether the government is going to win in court, I think reading what the government's own lawyers think about the case would be valuable. If it were possible to pay for this I think people would, that's why I think it is material. Some random person's opinion is not relevant information, but the opinion of people directly involved in a case is. | | |
| ▲ | danielmarkbruce a day ago | parent | next [-] | | That's fine, to each their own on trying to make predictions. I did try to predict it, did it accurately (along with many others, this wasn't the hardest thing ever), and wouldn't have had any interest in any internal memo. It's a public arena on things like this. I don't think even the justices themselves have "material inside information" until a little ways through the hearing, and people are trying to predict the outcome well before that. On the surface that might sound absurd, but it isn't. | | | |
| ▲ | Maxatar a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yes it absolutely is valuable to have access to expert opinions and people do pay money to acquire opinions from experts. But expert advice, even if material, is not the same as insider information. | | |
| ▲ | Detrytus a day ago | parent [-] | | Well, I think context matters here a lot: If you go to a random lawyer in Wyoming and ask them to write "expert opinion" then what you'll get would probably be something standard, written by a junior associate, or maybe even produced by ChatGPT. If the White House orders "expert opinion" on potential Supreme Court ruling then the chances are that the expert asked to prepare it is someone who plays golf with some of the SCOTUS judges. So those two "expert opinions" might not bear the same weight. | | |
| ▲ | Maxatar a day ago | parent [-] | | The quality of an opinion has no bearing as to whether that opinion is insider information. |
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| ▲ | LPisGood a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The non-publicly known strategy they intend to use in court is “information” | |
| ▲ | vkou a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Is a lawyer working on a case allowed to short the stock of his client? Why not? (Hint: it creates a perverse incentive to see your side lose the legal argument for your own personal gain.) And in this case, it's the actual secretary doing it. Who has significant influence on the outcome of the case (largely in the negative - nothing he can do can make the government more likely to win it, but stuff he did has the capacity to make the government more likely to lose it.) | |
| ▲ | dboreham a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | The Lebowski conjecture. |
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| ▲ | seizethecheese a day ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Prediction markets already had it as more likely than not that the court would rule against the tariffs |