> While I do tend to believe you, what evidence based data do you have to prove this is true?

IMO the onus is to prove that they can be strategic. Otherwise you're asking me to prove a negative.

Saying the tiger has to prove it can eat you is not a great strategy to survive a tiger attack.

Task Time horizons are improving exponentially with doubling times around 4 months per METR. At what timescale would you accept that they "can be strategic"? Theres little reason to think they wont be at multi week or month time horizons very soon. Do you need to be strategic to complete multi month tasks?