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runarberg 4 hours ago

xkcd did one about graphic calculators

https://xkcd.com/768/

But other that comes to mind are MRI scanners, superconductors, quantum computers.

I think in general this market law is subject to selection bias. The technology which does decrease in price will become commonplace and easy to find, whereas the technology which doesn’t risks becoming obscure and maybe even removed from consumer markets.

EDIT: just to clarify, the point about black swans is that the prediction is always close to 0 probability of the existence of black swans, until we actually observe one, then the probability is suddenly exactly 1. If LLMs are a black swan for this market law, most people will assign a close to 0 probability ... until they don’t.

beachy 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Oops my bad formatting - instead of "high volume/consumer electronics/computer technology" I meant to say "high volume consumer electronics/computer technology" which would have ruled out those examples. But your other point is true, there are always shortages of MRI scanners.