It depends. Normies don't care, but a bunch of them are free tier users anyway. The people who care are disproportionately on the $200/month moneymaking plan; losing a bunch of them could hurt, especially if it snowballs the consensus that Claude Code is the serious choice for software engineering.

For one small data point, my Signal GC of software buddies had four people switch their subscriptions from Codex to Claude Max last night.

How many $200/month does the US government cover though? I'd say probably a lot. Especially with how much extra the DoD will pay to get OpenAI to cross it's "red lines" - on day two.