Prediction markets have only events whose outcome is eventually publically resolved, by design. With insider trading, the trader is incentivized to release the information as late as possible, as close as possible to the events.

Why are these big insider bets being placed within hours of the event actually occurring? The insiders are doing the equivalent of bid sniping — waiting until the last possible moment to exercise.

This is how inside info works in trading markets in general. And again this is inevitable and by design.

It also makes them largely useless, because the timeline for which useful position is shared is compressed to the point where nothing useful can be gleaned from the information.

The thing is a “lie incentiviser” — a market entirely for suckers. That’s why 95% of volume is sports betting.

That’s setting aside insider positions having an influence on the outcome of events which is a whole separate problem.

> Why are these big insider bets being placed within hours of the event actually occurring?... It also makes them largely useless

They're not, usually. The more the outcome seems unlikely at first, the more you're incentivized to place your big bet earlier, when the odds seem worse, because you'll make a ton more money.

When these bets are placed only a few hours beforehand, that's often because the actual decision hasn't actually been made until then.

And there are plenty of areas where having notice of an hour or two is still hugely vulnerable.