Honestly it seems stupid but fine to me. Like if someone random comes up to me on the sidewalk and says hey if OpenAI announces a browser tomorrow, you give me $100. If not I'll give you $1000. Obviously I'm not going to take them up on it, they clearly have inside information.

If you're betting on a prediction market without insider information then you're just... The fool who is soon parted from his money one way or another.

I generally feel like people should be free to do whatever insane stuff they want with their own lives.

> I generally feel like people should be free to do whatever insane stuff they want with their own lives.

The problem with people doing insane stuff with their "own money" is the burden they often exact on their family or society.

Perhaps the realm of independence starts when loans are reasonable and current, there is sufficient child support, and they are meeting a base savings rate for their retirement.

Speaking of which, perhaps any UBI could also use a minimal criteria, reviewed annually but without any barriers on first year eligibility.