Manifold actually explicitly encourages insider trading, arguing that it leads to more accurate pricing. This was possibly defensible back when it was a cute funtime project run by a Bay Area polycule, but it’s probably going to get them in deep shit sooner or later, even though they don’t even use real-money betting.

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cc-d 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The SEC only exists for dad to frame people.

The vast majority of insider trading schemes are not prosecuted, many leave no evidence trail at all without going deep into black-op classified territory.

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tyre 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC in the US.

Your point stands, for now at least, since the CFTC seems entirely uninterested in prosecuting or regulating.

	▲	cc-d 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Thanks for making me aware of another federal agency :) Seems to me prosecuting or regulating this sort of activity is futile, and pretty much serve only the interests of the mob. These markets make additional data open source, which otherwise might exclusively belong only to mob, so that's pretty cool. We democratized buying airstrikes. It You may know how bad things really are, but if you don't, the lawboys are pretty much just playing pretend at this point, and have been for a while. Mob wants me to add: if you try to buy an airstrike with our very based and functional cryptocurrency systems, you will probably just find mob. We have mob priced in, anybody with a significant amount of cryptocurrency knows this too. It's not as simple as "buy an airstrike" comrade (we are referencing the person writing this post)

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sir0010010 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Though Manifold only uses their non-withdrawable play currency Mana.