I think you’re just describing how it’s circular.

It’s like Toys R Us not having enough money to pay Mattel for Barbie dolls and telling Mattel they can have partial ownership of the company if they just supply them with some more toys.

But the problem is that Toys R Us is spending $15, 20, or maybe even $50 (who knows?) to sell a $10 toy.

Toys R Us continues selling toys faster and faster despite a lack of profit, making Mattel even more dependent on Toys R Us as a customer. It blows up the bubble where a more natural course of action would be for Toys R Us to go bankrupt or scale back ambitions earlier.

Because it’s circular like this, it lends toward bigger crashing and burning. If OpenAI fails, all these investors that are deeply integrated into their supply chains lose both their investment and customer.

OK, so absolutely good faith here what is the end game?

Obviously, there’s a scenario of super power AI and then it’s a matter of continuing course. Electricity and silicon.

What if you are right, and the scaling doesn’t work. It is too much power, time, hardware to improve… does openAI fold?

Do they just actual use the models they have?

Does everyone just decide that AI didn’t work and go back 5 years like it didn’t happen?

Does the price change so that they have to be profitable making AI services expensive and rare instead of today where they are everywhere pointlessly?

Or does this insane valuation only make sense with information you don’t have like insider scaling or efficiency news?

Does China’s strategy of undercutting US value of models pay off bigly?