You'll always find someone claiming X or Y are close to collapse at any given time. As even a broken clock is right twice a day, eventually one of these predictions will randomly be proven correct. That person will then be elevated to a genius forecaster and rake in cash for a decade or two.

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muddi900 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Actually it is the other way around; every upstart claims that their invention is the mostest revolutionariest thing ever. 99.9% of them are not. The nay sayers are right most of the time.

Recent high-profile examples include Segway, NFT, Crypto as a whole, pre-tranformers voice assistants and various "Design Thinking" projects like those Amazon prime buttons.

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131hn 4 hours ago | parent [-]

My grandma (and my parents, by the way) have never heard of Segway, NFTs, or crypto, but they use ChatGPT all the time.

	▲	muddi900 4 minutes ago \| parent \| next [-]
		That's alright, but that was not about whether chatbots will succeed or fail. It was about countering dismissal of all voices of caution as blind dismissal. Saying X succeeded while people were saying it will fail is just survivorship bias. Also your parents and grandpa did indeed hear about the Segway.
	▲	hogwasher 3 hours ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		And your grandma and parents pay for it, do they? Free ChatGPT chat has made the company a household name, and helped it to persuade investors, but every single one of those free users costs the company money. Most of those free users have proved unwilling to convert to paid users, and adding ads to the free service promises to send it into the same enshittification death spiral so many other companies have fallen into. Also, how on Earth would your grandma and parents not have heard of crypto? Crypto is frequently front page news, even in print newspapers. There have been crypto superbowl ads. Are they living under a rock?
	▲	rvnx 3 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		They would use Claude or Grok for day-to-day if they had heard of it.

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109847 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Thiel said around last autumn that AI is a bubble and exited Nvidia. Nvidia is now falling despite good earnings.

If OpenAI keeps getting circular financing, of course they will not collapse yet.

	▲	hzwanip 4 hours ago \| parent [-]
		> Nvidia is now falling despite good earnings. I think it's still too early to tell. By what measure did you even determine that Nvidia is falling?