A thing I’ve learned about market cap in tech recently is that actually very little needs to get done on the core product. The momentum behind the brand is what carries the stock through time. The brand becomes its own compounding monetary instrument. Google had built a very very strong brand over the last 25 years or so. Only now is that starting to shift away from them. Because of that, I think we’ll start seeing them take more bold risks or they’ll be crushed by the weight of their own bureaucracy. This also tends to be the same reason startups can disrupt so swiftly.

An oversimplified version is this: So there are two core very critical components to the mid/late-phase tech megacorp strategy, you need to protect the core money printing product at all cost first and sustain that fiercely over a long period of time (decade+), then use any and all profits to find/fund the next cash cow, looking for optionality. While doing that, grow the market or consume a larger share of market. Google benefited from mainly the latter two and all while the internet blew up globally, funneling even more money into the machine.

It’s no secret that nearly every Google product that wasn’t search, lost them money. They were searching for the next big thing. They likely were some of the first to see AI as exactly that but moved too slowly to commercialize. Likely because of bureaucracy risk and also perhaps some sense of altruism in knowing the cataclysmic impacts AI could have. There have been plenty of former Google employees confirming this.

They also used to do things just to be cool, but those days have been long gone since Larry Page tapped out (and probably a few years before that, about a decade). Since then they’ve almost completely lost sight of what made them so successful that nobody even knows their vision or identity as a company today. These don’t correlate to market cap but they do silently lead to stagnation.

Their brand protects them from quite a lot but it’s not invincible.

YouTube and AdSense are both extraordinarily profitable. Google Play and Cloud are great revenue drivers as well. Search Ads are still the king of the hill, but it's definitely not their only profitable project, and many of the "unprofitable" projects funnel traffic to profitable ones--Chrome gives Search uplift, Google Play can't exist without Android, etc.