This is a very poor analysis, since it doesn’t account for the capital costs. Even if hydrogen is inefficient compared to batteries, it could win if the upfront investment was low enough to offset the additional fuel cost. This is quite obvious, since that’s why diesel trucks are winning today — the upfront cost of a diesel engine is cheap enough that it offsets the higher lifetime fuel costs.

I do think that batteries will win, but the correct argument is one that shows that capital costs of batteries are going down faster than the cost of hydrogen production.

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schainks 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Show me how the capital costs of rolling out high PSI hydrogen infra will be cheaper than building a power grid. You can even refit and re-use existing natural gas pipelines to move hydrogen if you want to cheat. I am willing to bet the costs per kW will still be crazy, especially at last mile where you are in an area populated by humans.

I don't see a bright future for hydrogen in transport while we keep putting cheap solar, wind, and batteries on the grid / roads.

	▲	ryantgtg an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Yeah. Vehicle costs are pretty much the same (for battery electric and fuel cell electric buses, at least) and are about 2-3x more than ICE. On-site hydrogen infra for fueling/storage is substantially more than charging equipment. H2 fuel is currently $10-20 per kg (the higher end accounts for vapor losses), which is, again, much greater than either diesel or electricity.