So far the people who bet against scaling laws have all lost money. That does not mean that their luck won’t change, but we should at least admit the winning streak.

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slopinthebag 7 hours ago | parent [-]

You mean Moore's law? Which is now dead?

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selridge 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

No I don't mean that. I mean the LLM parameter scaling laws. More importantly, it doesn't matter if I mean that or Moore's law or anything else, because I'm not making a forward looking prediction.

Read what I wrote.

I'm saying is if you bet AGAINST [LLM] scaling laws--meaning you bet that the output would peter out naturally somehow--you've lost 100% so far.

100%

Tomorrow could be your lucky day.

Or not.

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slopinthebag 5 hours ago | parent [-]

This weekend I had 100% success at the blackjack table, until I didn't and lost.

I guess we'll see :)

	▲	selridge 4 hours ago \| parent [-]
		You gonna go read up on some 0% success rate strategies on the way? What I’m saying is that we act as though claims about these scaling laws have never been tested. People feel free to just assert that any minute now the train will stop. They have been saying that since the Stochastic parrots. It has not come true yet. Tomorrow could be it. Maybe the day after. But it would then be the first victory.

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_zoltan_ 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

it's not dead. it's enough to look at GB200/GB300 vs Vera Rubin specs.