Outside my house right now it’s a cold, still evening with a high overcast. My expectation based on my years of experience living here and having seen these conditions before would be that it would likely clear out overnight, freeze hard, and be a beautiful day tomorrow.

In fact, though, a massive bomb cyclone is forming a few hundred miles away and it’s likely to dump over a foot of snow on us in the next 24 hours, accompanied by 50mph winds.

Weather forecasts are, not surprisingly, actually useful.