If I'm an insider with 100% confidence, I'll take all offers at a certain price as long as I can afford it. Similar story for lower levels of confidence (but still inside info). There won't necessarily be any left for you to copy at a viable price.

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jwpapi 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The examples didn’t look like they’ve completely emptied the orderbook

	▲	0x3f 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Because there's always some uncertainty and capital limits. But the uncertainty about the outcome is itself inside info, and that's compounded with your own uncertainty about the insider as a copy trader. So the insider will empty out certain price levels only, and your certainty is strictly less than theirs, meaning you have even fewer viable levels to buy.

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chii 19 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Similar story for lower levels of confidence

therefore, the polymarket betting odds will reflect the truth - even if that info is a secret that nobody else but the insider knows. And if this is the case, then even an outsider could make use of the odds as a source of info which would ensure that market efficiency (which is about the flow of information) is high.

So what's wrong with insider trading again?

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wqaatwt 14 hours ago | parent [-]

That someone with inside information will e.g. make 500% while those late to the party e.g. only get 10%? (of course your example is not very realistic to begin with)

	▲	nubg an hour ago \| parent [-]
		So is any kind of business illegal? Making investments?