Not sure what your story has to do with the discussion at hand. On average people do not beat the market, the market can be irrational longer than you are solvent but also most people probably have not done any modeling and so these are really feelings and not real economic bets.

GP was deciding to do something based solely on the fact that someone else advised them not to do that. So I presented the same scenario with the same logical process.

It isn't valid. It's being a contrarian, and not the outgrowth of some logical process.