I still believe this is the right - and inevitable - path for AI, especially as I use more premium AI tooling and evaluate its utility (I’m still a societal doomer on it, but even I gotta admit its coding abilities are incredible to behold, albeit lacking in quality).

Everyone in Capital wants the perpetual rent-extraction model of API calls and subscription fees, which makes sense given how well it worked in the SaaS boom. However, as Taalas points out, new innovations often scale in consumption closer to the point of service rather than monopolized centers, and I expect AI to be no different. When it’s being used sparsely for odd prompts or agentically to produce larger outputs, having local (or near-local) inferencing is the inevitable end goal: if a model like Qwen or Llama can output something similar to Opus or Codex running on an affordable accelerator at home or in the office server, then why bother with the subscription fees or API bills? That compounds when technical folks (hi!) point out that any process done agentically can instead just be output as software for infinite repetition in lieu of subscriptions and maintained indefinitely by existing technical talent and the same accelerator you bought with CapEx, rather than a fleet of pricey AI seats with OpEx.

The big push seems to be building processes dependent upon recurring revenue streams, but I’m gradually seeing more and more folks work the slop machines for the output they want and then put it away or cancel their sub. I think Taalas - conceptually, anyway - is on to something.