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| ▲ | anonymars 9 minutes ago | parent | next [-] |
| Ah, that "lays off 50,000 workers because of overhiring" oracle-of-farsight big tech? Little easier than "laying off" a billion-dollar fab, isn't it? |
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| ▲ | runjake an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| According to Elon during his recent Dwarkesh podcast appearance[1], TSMC is limited by resource constraints (fab components, contractors, etc). His claim is that TSMC is building as fast as they can and they are unable to meet industry demand. Seems legit to me. Nonetheless, I think it's a solvable problem. 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYXbuik3dgA |
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| ▲ | throwworhtthrow an hour ago | parent [-] | | If this is actually true, I think you can find a more reliable source than Elon Musk. I'm not saying you should never listen to a word he says. His actions shape the world after all, so it's important to understand how his words precede his behavior. But I'm baffled why anyone would take Elon at his word, or even slightly hedge their perception of reality based on Elon's claims of fact. |
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| ▲ | rwmj 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| "Silicon Valley" doesn't get to make the decision unless they are willing to send some of those hundreds of billions to TSMC up front. (TSMC isn't going to want future promises of business either since those are worth very little.) |
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| ▲ | aurareturn 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I don't disagree. I wrote the top comment here basically saying the same thing: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46764223 If big tech prepays for the entire fab, I think TSMC would do it. | | |
| ▲ | baq an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | if what Elon recently said is true (if - but he might not be... inaccurate... on this particular thing) they already have and bought the forward production capacity of those new fabs and it still isn't enough. | | |
| ▲ | aurareturn 14 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I believe that. TSMC would have to start another fab or two. PS. I'm pretty sure Intel is also at max capacity. They cancelled a bunch of fabs a few years ago when they were on a spiral. |
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| ▲ | toss1 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | And if the Big Tech companies think it is so important to get all those compute and/or memory chips sooner and in larger supply, it should be no problem at all for those Big Tech companies to pay for the costs and then have priority access to all (or their portion of) the output for the future years. OTOH, if they are insisting on not investing their funds or stock, and it is simply pressure on TSMC to take on the risk, TSMC should be very wary of taking on risk for those players (unless TSMC sees another advantage of producing into a likely glut or supply canyon shortly after the new fabs come online). |
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