> I think it all boils down to, which is higher risk, using AI too much, or using AI too little?

It's both. It's using the AI too much to code, and too little to write detailed plans of what you're going to code. The planning stage is by far the easiest to fix if the AI goes off track (it's just writing some notes in plain English) so there is a slot-machine-like intermittent reinforcement to it ("will it get everything right with one shot?") but it's quite benign by comparison with trying to audit and fix slop code.