> ~0% of them can be implemented by AI as it exists today

I think it's more nuanced than that. I'd say that - 0% can't be implemented by AI - but a lot of them can be implemented much faster thanks to AI - a lot of them can be implemented slower when using AI (because author has to fix hallucinations, revert changes that caused bugs)

As we learn to use these tools, even in their current state, they will increase productivity by some factor and reduce needs for programmers.

What factor of increased productivity will lead to reduced need for programmers?

I have seen numerous 25-50% productivity boosts over my career. Not a single one of them reduced the overall need for programmers.

I can’t even think of one that reduced the absolute number of programmers in a specific field.