> leading to one of those situations where a bunch of people get fired for no reason and then re-hired again after some time.

More likely they get fired for no reason, never rehired, and the people left get burned out trying to hold it all together.

Exactly, now which one do you wanna be? The burned out ones but still working in SWE or the fired ones which in the long run converge to manual labor which AI can't do. Not to mention in SWE case the salaries would be pushed down to match cost of AI doing it.