Nvidia seems cooked.

Google is crushing them on inference. By TPUv9, they could be 4x more energy efficient and cheaper overall (even if Nvidia cuts their margins from 75% to 40%).

Cerebras will be substantially better for agentic workflows in terms of speed.

And if you don't care as much about speed and only cost and energy, Google will still crush Nvidia.

And Nvidia won't be cheaper for training new models either. The vast majority of chips will be used for inference by 2028 instead of training anyway.

Nvidia has no manufacturing reliability story. Anyone can buy TSMC's output.

Power is the bottleneck in the US (and everywhere besides China). By TPUv9 - Google is projected to be 4x more energy efficient. It's a no-brainer who you're going with starting with TPUv8 when Google lets you run on-prem.

These are GW scale data centers. You can't just build 4 large-scale nuclear power plants in a year in the US (or anywhere, even China). You can't just build 4 GW solar farms in a year in the US to power your less efficient data center. Maybe you could in China (if the economics were on your side, but they aren't). You sure as hell can't do it anywhere else (maybe India).

What am I missing? I don't understand how Nvidia could've been so far ahead and just let every part of the market slip away.

> let every part of the market slip away.

Which part of the market has slept away, exactly ? Everything you wrote is supposition and extrapolation. Nvidia has a chokehold on the entire market. All other players still exist in the small pockets that Nvidia doesn’t have enough production capacity to serve. And their dev ecosystem is still so far ahead of anyone else. Which providers gets chosen to equip a 100k chips data center goes so far beyond the raw chip power.

> What am I missing?

Largest production capacity maybe?

Also, market demand will be so high that every player's chips will be sold out.

Man I hope someone drinks Nvidia's milk shake. They need to get humbled back to the point where they're desperate to sell gpus to consumers again.

Only major road block is cuda...

I believe they licensed smth from groq

Well they `acquired` groq for a reason.