| ▲ | xvector 3 hours ago |
| How are they not overvalued? At some point OSS will be sufficient for most businesses, what then? |
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| ▲ | ibejoeb 35 minutes ago | parent | next [-] |
| >OSS will be sufficient for most businesses Only for well defined tasks. There's not really a practical upper bound. We will keep throwing more complex tasks at it to the extent that it can handle them. Like if you just need fancy OCR, then a specific model will probably suffice, but there will be an appetite for human- or superhuman-level intelligence that never gets tired and has no rights. |
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| ▲ | nikcub an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Funny I consider this valuation modest considering what the max extent of the investment thesis is here. SaaS and legal market caps have already contracted a multiple of the combined OpenAI + Anthropic valuations just based on the _threat_ of what they may be able to accomplish. They'll have the data + knowledge edge over open alternatives and be able to implement + deploy (see the story about Anthropic employees being at GS for 6 months already[0]) [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/anthropic-goldman-sachs-ai-m... |
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| ▲ | bix6 an hour ago | parent [-] | | What’s your max extent? I was just doing some napkin math to think about where they’ll cap out. |
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| ▲ | mcmcmc 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| They’ll become commodity AI compute providers while training and selling premium foundation models. |
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| ▲ | phreeza 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| These companies are spending billions on custom datasets for a gazillion of valuable tasks and are clamping down on exfil for distillation. It's not guaranteed open source models will continue to keep pace. |
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| ▲ | marcyb5st 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | China might purchase the data and train their models just to make the AI bubble pop. A few billions to throw a wrench in your competing superpower economy might be totally worth it | |
| ▲ | CuriouslyC 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | And yet open models have been tailing closer lately? |
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| ▲ | Yizahi an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Then they will fall back on the selling their other real competitive products - hardware accelerators, phones and PCs, cloud storage and cloud compute, enterprise software, databases, operating systems, office and media suits... Oh wait... |
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| ▲ | vessenes 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| What do you value a company at that has gotten to $14b in revenue in 3 years and has 60%+ margin on inference? Just out of curiosity. |
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| ▲ | JackSlateur an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | 60%+ margin on inference: source ? + r&d costs Of course, if one does not "pay" for investment, benefits are easily made .. | |
| ▲ | xvector 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I am struggling with this because I have an Anthropic offer vs another equivalent offer that is all cash. But project out forwards. - What happens when Google builds a similar model? Or even Meta, as far behind as they are? They have more than Anthropic in cash flow to pour into these models. - What happens when OSS is "enough" for most cases? Why would anyone pay 60% margins on inference? What is Anthropic's moat? The UX is nice, but it can be copied. And other companies will have similarly intelligent models eventually. Margins will then be a race to the bottom, and the real winners will be GPU infra. | | |
| ▲ | underyx an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | If you have an offer, you can and should ask this question of whomever you're coordinating with. They will give you an honest answer. | |
| ▲ | jrjeksjd8d an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I've been in this situation before. Anthropic has a stupid business model but the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. If you get in there you will be aligned with people who structurally do not lose. | |
| ▲ | fragmede an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Big picture, sure. We can talk about the millions that corporations will make and who's going to do what. But you're a person. $1 million in options is probably meaningful for you. Companies aren't IPOing, but the secret is that they're still paying employees cash for their options. SpaceX employees have had what's called a tender, which means they get to sell some of their hypothetical SpaceX options for cold hard cash in the bank that you can use to pay your mortgage. There's zero guarantee that Anthropic will do such a thing before the bubble bursts, but if they do, and you're there, who cares about a software company moat when you have enough money to buy a castle in Napa and pay to have a real actual moat with water in it and crocodiles, if that's what you want. Others are made of different stuff, and are going to go right back to work, even though they could go off to a beach for the rest of forever somewhere. | | |
| ▲ | xvector 13 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > who cares about a software company moat when you have enough money to buy a castle in Napa and pay to have a real actual moat with water in it and crocodiles, if that's what you want. Doesn't this require their private market valuations to go well into the trillions? |
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| ▲ | Hamuko 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Is their overall margin also about 60% too? Or something saner like 30%? | | |
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