I agree with this article completely, nice to see it presented quantitatively.

>re "only" the harness changed

In our experience, AI's are like amnesiacs who can barely remember what they did three minutes ago (their last autonomous actions might still be in their context if you're lucky), with no chance at remembering what they did three days ago. As such, the "harness" determines their entire memory and is the single most important determinant of their outcome.

The best harness is a single self-contained, well-commented, obvious, and tiny code file followed by a plain explanation of what it does and what it's supposed to do, the change request, how you want it to do it (you have to say it with so much force and confidence that the AI is afraid of getting yelled at if they do anything else) and a large amount of text devoted to asking the AI not to break what is already working. Followed by a request to write a test that passes. Followed by asking for its judgment about whether it broke what was already working on or not. All in one tiny crisp prompt.

With such a harness, it's able to not break the code one time in twenty. If you use reverse psychology and ask it to do the opposite of what you want, it rises to fifty-fifty odds you'll get what you're trying to do.

Don't believe me? You can watch the livestream (see my previous comments).

Baby steps toward Utopia.