The train is already derailing. The thing that no AI evangelists ever acknowledge is that the field has not solved its original questions. Minsky's work on neural networks is still relevant more then half a century later. What this looks like from the ground is that exponential growth of computing power fuels only linear growth of AI. That makes resources and costs spiral out incredibly fast. You can see that in the costs: every AI player out there has a 200 plus dollar tier and still loses money. That linear growth is why every couple decades theres a hype cycle as society checks back in to see how its going and is impressed by the gains, but that sustain just cant last because it can't keep up with the expected growth in capabilities.

Growth at a level it can't sustain and can't be backed by actual jumps in capabilities has a name: A bubble. What's coming is dot-com crash 2.0