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handoflixue 2 hours ago

The problem is, there's two groups:

One says "well, it was built as a bunch of pieces, so it can only do the thing the pieces can do", which is reasonably dismissed by noting that basically the only people predicting current LLM capabilities are the ones who are remarkably worried about a singularity occurring.

The other says "we can evaluate capabilities and notice that LLMs keep gaining new features at an exponential, now bordering into hyperbolic rate", like the OP link. And those people are also fairly worried about the singularity occurring.

So mainly you get people using "here's how LLMs actually work" to argue against the Singularity if-and-only-if they are also the ones arguing that LLMs can't do the things that they can provably do, today, or are otherwise making arguments that also declare humans aren't capable of intelligence / reasoning / etc..

wavemode 6 minutes ago | parent [-]

False dichotomy. One can believe that LLMs are capable of more than their constituent parts without necessarily believing that their real-world utility is growing at a hyperbolic rate.