> Are you saying that Israelis are more likely to have kids mainly because Israeli society is more tolerant of kids

Yes.

They are much more tolerant about having kids and making sure to give space to people planning to have kids.

> In my model, people choose to have kids because it's an important life goal for them, and this decision is not very much affected by whether other people might give them a stink eye if their kids run around in a mall.

The more likely you and your peers are to have kids, the more likely you are to live in a society which will accommodate you.

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Heck, Germany gives significantly more monetary and subsidized childcare benefits than Israel (which gives almost nothing), and Israel remains significantly more expensive than much of Germany, yet secular Israelis continues to sustain a much higher fertility rate than similar Germans.

It is hard to describe how kid unfriendly Western society has become.