| ▲ | tfehring 2 hours ago | |
The timing for those factors doesn’t match the timing of the fertility decline in the US. Birth control usage is slightly down since the mid 90s. Among sexually active women not trying to get pregnant, the rate has been flat since 2002. https://www.guttmacher.org/fact-sheet/contraceptive-use-unit... Women’s labor force participation rate peaked in the late 90s. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002 It’s hard to see how a stronger social safety net would decrease birth rates, but that has actually also decreased, e.g. from welfare reforms in 1996. Meanwhile, total fertility is down ~20% over the ~30 year period since then. | ||
| ▲ | coryrc 31 minutes ago | parent [-] | |
You're comparing an average, but the demographics are different. If you compare, say, native-born-white to native-born-white, they fit those inputs much closer. Total fertility is down because a smaller fraction of the population are immigrants from Mexico and Central/South America now and those immigrants have a higher birth rate. Their children regress to the mean. | ||