There have been many many productivity improvements over the last 50 years that provided more than a 25% boost. I’ve yet to see an employer pay that much per employee for any of them.

Also a 25% boost per individual doesn’t necessarily equal a 25% boost to the final output if there are other bottlenecks.

The people who own "the means of production" isn't you.

A $2k/month model, should it ever arise, won't need you.

Sure they can also code without the help of a model, probably not that much slower.

Things that can only be used by an exclusive elite don't tend to survive, unless we're talking super-yachts.

AI is only going to work if enough people can actually meaningfully use it.

Therefore, the monetisation model will have to adapt in ways that make it sustainable. OpenAI is experimenting with ads. Other companies will just subsidise the living daylights out of their solutions...and a few people will indeed run this stuff locally.

Look at how slow the adoption of VR has been. And how badly Meta's gamble on the metaverse went. It's still too expensive for most people. Yes, a small elite can afford the necessary equipment, but that's not a petri dish on which one can grow a paradigm-shift.

If only a few thousand people could afford [insert any invention here], that invention wouldn't be common-place nowadays.

Now, the pyramid has sort of been turned on its head, in the sense that things nowadays don't start expensive and then become cheaper, but instead start cheap and then become...something else, be that more expensive or riddled with ads. But there are limits to this.

> People who are cut out to be software developers

You mean the people AI is going to replace? What's the definition of 'cut out to be' here?

Your identity as real software developer relies on the community's broad, inclusive definition of what it means to be one. Something you're failing to extend to others.

To be sitting that far out on a limb of software development while sawing at the branches of others is quite an interesting choice.

Pretty edgy response. I'd say trying to scale in price rather than in quantity is a bad business strategy for tech period, specially if you hope to become Google-sized like OpenAI and company want.

Are you OpenAI? If not, you don't afford the means of production. You're the sharecropper.

This is such a hilarious out of touch SV techbro comment I can't believe it's real. You're a monkey with a computer that knows how to Google, there's an endless amount of people who can replace you.

Big yikes bro.

I mean, will it? I would expect that all those GPUs and servers will ends up somewhere. Look on old Xeon servers, it all ended up in China. Nobody sane will buy 1U serve home, but Chinese has recycled these servers by making X99 motherboards which takes RAMs and Xeon CPUs from these noise servers and turning into PCs.

I would expect that they could sell something like AI computers with lot of GPU power created from similar recycled GPU clusters ussed today.

And most tasks don't demand that.

Distilled models are good enough.

10x productivity means you should have had time to build an your own programming language/OS/integrated dev environment or something equally impressive. Can you link to it?

Yuck.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

> Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes.

> Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive.

> When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. "That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is 2, not 3."

Honestly, if you just made your profile a day ago to yell overly confident and meaningless statements into the void, like a Mandrill in the jungle trying to shout over all the others, go back to LinkedIn, they like that kind of stuff there.

I even agree that AI has a place in our world and can greatly increase productivity. But we should talk about the how and why, instead of attacking others ad hominem and just stopping any discourse with absolutist nonsense.

People here are gonna be mad but they deserve to not reap what they don’t sow. Please keep triggering the snowflakes on this website with the truth.