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rootusrootus 3 hours ago

> Human drivers will be banned, the roads will be exclusively used by autonomous vehicles

I basically agree with your premise that public transit as it exists today will be rendered obsolete, but I think this point here is where your prediction hits a wall. I would be stunned if we agreed to eliminate human drivers from the road in my lifetime, or the lifetime of anyone alive today. Waymo is amazing, but still just at the beginning of the long tail.

an hour ago | parent | next [-]
[deleted]
xnx 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> I would be stunned if we agreed to eliminate human drivers from the road in my lifetime

It basically happened for horses.

anigbrowl 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Horses don't vote.

xnx 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Neither do cars?

anigbrowl 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Drivers, however, absolutely do. And I do not see enough drivers voting away their own ability to drive any time soon.

xnx 30 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Right, I was pointing out that at some point there was probably a horse-rider constituency as there is a driver constituency today.

semiquaver an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

A few years ago I would have (and did) considered the notion that manually programming was about to turn into a quaint relic and computers would be writing 90%+ of code preposterous. Once an alternative becomes obviously superior things can change very fast.

Jblx2 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Is that:

- I would be stunned if we agree to eliminate human drivers from 100% of roads in the lifetime of anyone alive today.

or

- I would be stunned if we agree to eliminate human drivers from 10% of roads...

...or is there some other percentage to qualify this? I guess I wouldn't expect there to be a decree that makes it happen all at once for a country. Especially a large country like the U.S.. More like, some really dense city will decide to make a tiny core autonomous vehicles only, and then some other cities also do years later. And then maybe it expands to something larger than just the core after 5 or 10 years. And so on...