I don't think that's happening in practice, but 1) it may not be specified and 2) What you say could well be the persisted state after a machine crash or power loss. In particular if those files live in different directories.

You can remedy 2) by doing fsync() on the parent directory in between. I just asked ChatGPT which directory you need to fsync. It says it's both, the source and the target directory. Which "makes sense" and simplifies implementations, but it means the rename operation is atomic only at runtime, not if there's a crash in between. It think you might end up with 0 or 2 entries after a crash if you're unlucky.

If that's true, then for safety maybe one should never rename across directories, but instead do a coordinated link(source, target), fsync(target_dir), unlink(source), fsync(source_dir)

why is this being downvoted? If there's something wrong, explain?