My gut feeling is that performance is more heavily affected by harnesses which get updated frequently. This would explain why people feel that Claude is sometimes more stupid - that's actually accurate phrasing, because Sonnet is probably unchanged. Unless Anthropic also makes small A/B adjustments to weights and technically claims they don't do dynamic degradation/quantization based on load. Either way, both affect the quality of your responses.

It's worth checking different versions of Claude Code, and updating your tools if you don't do it automatically. Also run the same prompts through VS Code, Cursor, Claude Code in terminal, etc. You can get very different model responses based on the system prompt, what context is passed via the harness, how the rules are loaded and all sorts of minor tweaks.

If you make raw API calls and see behavioural changes over time, that would be another concern.