| ▲ | fooker 14 hours ago |
| > I suspect ten years from now, people will look back at 2024-2025 as the moment Apple had a clear shot at owning the agent layer and chose not to take it Ten years from now, there will be no ‘agent layer’. This is like predicting Microsoft failed to capitalize on bulletin boards social media. |
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| ▲ | JimDabell 13 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Ten years from now, the agent layer will be the interface the majority of people use a computer through. Operating systems will become more agentic and absorb the application layer while platforms like Claude Cowork will try to become the omniapp. They’ll meet in the middle and it will be like Microsoft trying to fight Netscape’s view of the web as the omniapp all over again. Apple will either capitalise on this by making their operating systems more agentic, or they will be reduced to nothing more than a hardware and media vendor. |
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| ▲ | nilamo 12 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I hope so. We're right on the cusp of having computers that actually are everything we ever wanted them to be, ever since scifi started describing devices that could do things for us. There's just a few pesky details left to iron out (who pays for it, insane power demand, opaque models, non-existent security, etc etc). Things actually can "do what I mean, not what I say", now. Truly fascinating to see develop. | | |
| ▲ | snailmailman 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | Ah yes. “Non-existent security” is only a pesky detail that will surely be ironed out. It’s not a critical flaw in the entirety of the LLM ecosystem that now the computers themselves can be tricked into doing things by asking in just the right way. Anything in the context might be a prompt injection attack, and there isn’t really any reliable solution to that but let’s hook everything up to it, and also give it the tools to do anything and everything. There is still a long way to go to securing these. Apple is, I think wisely, staying out of this arena until it’s solved, or at least less of a complete mess. | | |
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| ▲ | AlienRobot 8 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Not my operating system. | |
| ▲ | skeptic_ai 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think in 10 years your pc will be more locked down than your iPhone. | |
| ▲ | oidar 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think you are right. In fact, if were a regular office worker today, a Claude subscription could possibly be the only piece of software you might need to open for days in a row to be productive. You can check messages, send messages, modify documents, create documents, do research, and so on. You could even have it check on news and forums for you (if they could be crawled that is). | | |
| ▲ | falloutx 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | I wouldn't call that productive, not even close if you are just sending AI replies, offloading all your tasks and doing nothing. This is what execs think we do, while every job has a lot of complexities that are hard to see from surface level. Belief that all work can be automatable is just a dream that execs have. |
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| ▲ | falloutx 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | In 10 years you probably wont own a PC if things go the way all the corporations want. | | |
| ▲ | bossyTeacher 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Possibly so in urban areas. Internet is already available everywhere. Sell dumb devices that can remotely log in to virtual devices. An LLM can connect to this virtual device and execute whatever action the user wants. Centralising compute resources this way means it's likely cheaper to offer huge compute to tons of users and so rather than buying a smartphone, you buy a monthly subscription to AI which can do everything your device does but you just need to speak or text to it. Sub includes cost of dumb device maintenance, securing the data you sent to the virtual device, etc. Personal Computing as a service. Let the computer think for you. |
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| ▲ | fooker 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I don’t doubt the end goal. My point is that it won’t be a ‘layer’ like it is now and the technology will be completely different from what we see as agents today. | |
| ▲ | mrkstu 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | So they need to finally finish Knowledge Navigator… | | |
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| ▲ | thewhitetulip 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Or how "your next meeting will be in Metaverse" |
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| ▲ | podnami 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Is your prediction that most people actually like to use software? |
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| ▲ | flexagoon 11 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Do they not? Many phone functions are already available through voice assistants, and have been for a very long time, and yet the vast majority of people still prefer to use them with the UI. Clicking on the weather icon is much easier than asking a chatbot "what's the weather like?" | | |
| ▲ | Brybry 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | My elderly mother has an essential tremor (though only in one hand now due to successful ultrasound treatment!) and she would still rather suffer through all her errors with a touch interface than use voice commands. | |
| ▲ | Sharlin 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Some people seem to think that Deckard’s speech-controlled CSI software in Blade Runner is actually something to strive for, UX-wise. As if it makes any sense to use strictly nonvisual, non-two-dimensional affordances to work with visual data. |
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| ▲ | fooker 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | No it’ll be some idea we have not developed or named yet. The current ‘agent’ ecosystem is just hacks on top of hacks. | |
| ▲ | 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | CuriouslyC 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If you're arguing that in 10 years we won't have fully automated systems where we interact more with the automation than the functionality, I've got news for you... |
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| ▲ | fooker 14 hours ago | parent [-] | | I’m saying we won’t call it agents and it will involve substantially different technology compared to what we mean by agents today. Of course AI will keep improving and more automation is a given. |
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| ▲ | keyle 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| We are likely the last generation to know how to use a keyboard. Sadly. Kids can barely hand write today. Once neural interfaces are in, it's over for keyboards and displays likely too. |
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| ▲ | thepasswordis 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | Just as a reminder, 15 years ago was 2011. That was...like 4 macbooks ago. I still have keyboards from that era. I still have speakers and monitors from that era kicking around. We are definitely, definitely not the last generation to use keyboards. | | |
| ▲ | llbbdd 11 hours ago | parent [-] | | Maybe not the last, but it feels like we're getting closer than I thought we would. I love keyboards, I love typing. I'm rocking an Ergodox daily with a wooden shell that I built myself over ten years ago, with layers of macros that make it nearly incomprehensible for another person to use. I've got keyboard storage. I used to have a daily habit of going to multiple typing competition websites, planting a flag at #1 in the daily leaderboard and moving on to the next one. Over the last year the utility of voice interfaces has just exploded though and I'm finding that I'm touching the keyboard less and less. Outside of projects where I'm really opinionated on the details or the architecture it increasingly feels like a handicap to bother manually typing code for a lot of tasks. I'm honestly more worried about that physical skill atrophying than dulling on any ability to do the actual engineering work, but it makes me a bit sad. Like having a fleet of untiring tractors replacing the work of my horse, but I like horses. |
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