Speaking as a quant that has followed this story closely for months (and was educated about the yen carry trade in my degree), this narrative is somewhat wrong and also very obviously LLM slop.

It is true that the yen carry trade is currently being unwound and that it has significant implications for nearly all holders of treasuries. But claiming that ALL of the recent volatility is due to this one event is ludicrous. There are some blatant falsities, like saying that gold and silver are historically uncorrelated??? And it’s clear that the author has a bias against the financial establishment (“monopoly money”), coloring the output.

That said, there are legitimately interesting bits here I didn’t know about, like the Japanese institutional liquidation of US treasuries. I would not repeat this information to others without fact checking it, but if accurately described it’s an important space to watch. It’s not surprising that the LLM would get some things right, of course.

One big problem with this article is the clear prompt given to connect x current event to the yen carry trade, like Warsh’s nomination and the Greenland nonsense. This creates a lot of noise. It’s basically the LLM looking for a pattern between these things instead of identifying a structural flow. It might not even be wrong, but it’s horribly biased towards finding a fake pattern, so I would never trust it.

For the tech heads in HN that are excited to see a Justine Tunney post: don’t go crazy. If you’re really interested in learning about the unwinding of the yen carry trade, there’s plenty of information from actual experts to read about, not this slop.

Also, while I’m not an expert on Japan, I’ve been following Gearoid Reidy’s commentary on Takaichi and the new Japanese economy and I think the fears expressed are significantly overblown. But this is also characteristic of many other market participants so I wouldn’t categorize this as something obviously wrong, just a disagreement.

> If you’re really interested in learning about the unwinding of the yen carry trade, there’s plenty of information from actual experts to read about,

Ok I’ll bite. Where ?

Tbf, they are not far from a Truss-squared moment. And doesn’t help that CCP is gaining momentum with US leaving a vacuum while Sino-Japanese relation is going down the toilet.

> like the Japanese institutional liquidation of US treasuries

There were news articles about this "happening" but this event never realized.