The 3.3% paid conversion is not great.

Believe it or not, the Recon Analytics trend is actually worse primary usage among Copilot subscribers dropped from 18.8% to 11.5% since July while Gemini climbed past it.

People who paid are leaving.

That's a churn problem.

The tell is buried in the article: workers who have access to Copilot, ChatGPT, and Gemini side by side choose ChatGPT and Gemini at higher rates.

Some companies are using 10% of their paid seats. Microsoft's CMO of AI says growth is "unlike anything we've seen before" but won't share the numbers.

That's the "we're thrilled with preorders" of AI.

This is the Ballmer story all over again.

  - Massive distribution advantage
  - Captive enterprise base

Windows Phone had carrier deals too.

The problem is the same: you can't mandate delight.

This part is laughable, can't believe it leaked:

  > "About a year ago, Nadella sent a frustrated email to Rajesh Jha, 
  > executive vice president of experiences and devices, detailing an incident in which 
  > Nadella had asked the enterprise version of Copilot on the Edge browser 
  > to help with a public webpage he was on, 
  > but it couldn't fulfill his prompt"

Meanwhile, Anthropic ships Cowork after 10 days and it just explodes with the market.

> Meanwhile three different orgs inside Microsoft all own something called "Copilot" and none of them talk to each other.

I audibly winced

> unlike anything we've seen before

They probably haven't seen (to pull a number out of a hat) negative three billion percent growth before either…

> growth is "unlike anything we've seen before"

This says nothing about where the growth is going