I see the current generation of AI very much as a thing in between. Opus 4.5 can think and code quite well, but it cannot do these "jumps of insight" yet. It also struggles with straightforward, but technically intricate things, where you have to max out your understanding of the problem.

Just a few days ago, I let it do something that I thought was straightforward, but it kept inserting bugs, and after a few hours of interaction it said itself it was running in circles. It took me a day to figure out what the problem was: an invariant I had given it was actually too strong, and needed to be weakened for a special case. If I had done all of it myself, I would have been faster, and discovered this quicker.

For a different task in the same project I used it to achieve a working version of something in a few days that would have taken me at least a week or two to achieve on my own. The result is not efficient enough for the long term, but for now it is good enough to proceed with other things. On the other hand, with just one (painful) week more, I would have coded a proper solution myself.

What I am looking forward to is being able to converse with the AI in terms of a hard logic. That will take care of the straightforward but technically intricate stuff that it cannot do yet properly, and it will also allow the AI to surface much quicker where a "jump of insight" is needed.

I am not sure what all of this means for us needing to think hard. Certainly thinking hard will be necessary for quite a while. I guess it comes down to when the AIs will be able to do these "jumps of insight" themselves, and for how long we can jump higher than they can.