You can make a good guess, though - OpenAI had a significant lead, its moat was being a generation or 2 ahead of the competition, and as of the end of 2025, OpenAI, Google, xAI, and Anthropic are pretty much neck and neck. Grok and Gemini are likely to be the top 2 within the next couple months, and the Chinese open models are hot on their heels.

OpenAI is going to be competing for third or fourth place with Anthropic unless one of them pulls off a big capabilities or efficiency leap while remaining believably as good as the other top models. Google and xAI have advantages that the others don't, and are capitalizing on them like crazy. It remains to be seen whether xAI can compete with the Google hardware advantage, but they have economies of scale, differences in mission, and Elon's billions on their side, so it's turning out to be a very interesting race.

Sama could also finagle a funding rabbit or strategic partnership out of his hat and also have the next top tier model, amazing everyone again and keeping a plausible "best in class" lead for a while; OpenAI would have to be down for at least a year before I counted it out completely. It's not looking very pretty for them right now, though.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46865317

The same thing that YC does…

https://medium.com/@Arakunrin/the-post-ipo-performance-of-y-...

Consumer can eat all the GPUs they have and more if we stop trying to force B2B

Right we have a loop where AI is so expensive (because it's priced to feast on B2B margins) that the best consumer experiences aren't affordable, and they're not affordable so they don't go mainstream, and they're not mainstream so no one is willing to take less money and bank on the incredible volume that would emerge if it went mainstream.

If we can get model pricing cheaper AI entertainment alone will probably carry things (I'm 99% sure NovelAI is already one of their largest customers outside of major AI labs)

If you truly believe this, slowly divest everything into cash, wait for the crash, then buy back in. Even buying in slowly over the course of a crash, on the way down, will save you a ton of money if you're out before it hits.

But you're more likely to just cash out early, lose a bunch of gains, then buy back in later at higher prices.

If you can time the crash you can make a shitload of money. But you can't, so you'll come out better if you just keep buying in every paycheck and ride it out just like you have been.

Invest into stuff that people will need regardless of the bubble popping like medicine, food, internet access, energy, ... . Stay away from luxury/travel stuff.

Also, during a crash there is the so called "flight for quality" where people cash out from risky assets and invest in stable ones that can weather the storm. So, try to invest in assets that are A or above (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Global_Ratings). The chart is for countries, but analysts grade companies as well in case you want to stay away from treasuries/national bonds.

Also diversify geographically. US will likely take the biggest hit if the bubble pops, so perhaps European markets that lagged behind in adopting the technology are safer (IMHO).

Personally, I am preparing by moving money from growth items to stable ones a bit at the time. To diversify even further I am using ETFs that, in addition to what mentioned above

1) pay dividends (whether these distributed or reinvested doesn't really matter) 2) are denominated in or hedged in safer currencies (CHF especially, but also Euro)

You definitely get smaller returns, but the name of the game is to maintain what you have, not to make heaps of money.

Finally, I am not a financial advisor, so do your own valuations/risk assessment analysis.

Almost all the gains in the SNP500 are NVidia, and other huge tech.

https://www.investopedia.com/your-s-and-p-500-index-fund-mig...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/your-portfolio-may-be-more-t...

Buy Puts

Big scale fraud like this always has its origin and motive force in the executive suite and board.

However, the consequences are always applied to everyone but the executives and board.

The post dot com winners? Ironic.

> And whose fault is that?

Primarily the fault of our governments not using anti-trust laws for real in, like, decades.

Governments actually do have the power to regulate the economy and to prevent catastrophic crashes from occurring. The warning signs for the AI bubble have been visible for well over a year now, when the entity relationship map between the major players began to resemble a Habsburg family tree... and yet, nothing was done.