> if the US continues down the political path it currently seems to be pursuing, 'this time it's different' actually will be

You’ve set no time bound so what you say here is essentially irrefutable. It boils down to “on this path we will eventually have a big bust.” You’re right if it happens in 1 year or 30.

You’ve also not defined the bounds of the path. Paths can weave. So essentially that part of it becomes meaningless because anyone can draw a line that starts with today.

Tech has a long history of boom bust cycles. Some busts are much more mild than others. Some upend the whole economy for protracted periods. In reality no one knows when AI will bust and how bad it will be. Those are the key questions, not whether there will eventually be a tech (or broad) bust. Of course there will be if you’re looking out to infinity days from today.

Most economic commentary is like this including the linked article: so poorly defined as to be low worth as even speculation.