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hamdingers 10 hours ago

The whole point of self-driving cars (to me) is I don't have to own or insure it, someone else deals with that and I just make it show up with my phone when I need it.

BarryMilo 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Imagine this for a whole neighborhood! Maybe it'd be more efficient for the transport to come at regular intervals though. And while we're at it, let's pick up other people along the way, you'll need a bigger vehicle though, perhaps bus-sized...

Half-jokes aside, if you don't own it, you'll end up paying more to the robotaxi company than you would have paid to own the car. This is all but guaranteed based on all SaaS services so far.

nine_k 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This only works in neighborhoods that are veritable city blocks, with buildings several stories tall standing close by. Not something like northern Houston, TX; it barely works for places like Palo Alto, CA. You cannot run buses on every lane, at a reasonable distance from every house.

The point of a car is takes you door to door. There's no expectation to walk three blocks from a stop; many US places are not intended for waking anyway. Consider heavy bags from grocery shopping, or similar.

Public transit works in proper cities, those that became cities before the advent of the car, and were not kept in the shape of large suburban sprawls by zoning. Most US cities only qualify in their downtowns.

Elsewhere, rented / hailed self-driving cars would be best. First of all, fewer of them would be needed.

hamdingers 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> if you don't own it, you'll end up paying more to the robotaxi company than you would have paid to own the car

Maybe for you, I already don't own it and have not found that to be true. I pretty much order an uber whenever I don't feel like riding my bike or the bus, and that costs <$300 most months. Less than the average used car payment in the US before you even consider insurance, fuel, storage, maintenance, etc.

I also rent a car now and then for weekend trips, that also is a few hundred bucks at most.

I would be surprised if robotaxis were more expensive long term.

dfabulich 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Self-driving municipal busses would be fantastic.

nine_k 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Also, a real nightmare for the municipal trade unions. (Do you know why every NYC subway train needs to have not one but two operators, even though it could run automatically just fine?)

koakuma-chan 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Why?

nine_k 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Because the Transport Workers Union fought tooth and nail for it. Laying off hundreds of operators would be a politically very dangerous move.

koakuma-chan 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Huh. I wonder if that makes any sense. It doesn't seem to make sense to keep employing people if you no longer need them. It sucks to be layed off, but that's just how it works.

supertrope 4 hours ago | parent [-]

It also shows a lack of imagination. If you have to provide a union with a job bank, why not re-deploy employees to other roles? With one person per train, re-deploy people to run more trains therefore decreasing the interval between trains. Stations used to have medics but this was cut. How about re-train people to be those medics? The subway could use a signaling upgrade and positive train control. Installing platform screen doors to greatly reduce the incidence of people falling onto the tracks is going to need a lot of labor.

cyberax 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Why would you need buses?

supertrope 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Mass transit is a capacity multiplier. If 35 people are headed in the same direction compare that with the infrastructure needed to handle 35 cars. Road capacity, parking capacity, car dealerships, gas stations, repair shops, insurance, car loans.

onlyrealcuzzo 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Believe it or not, in some cities that have near grid-lock rush-hour traffic - there's between 50-100%+ as many people traveling by bus as by car.

If all of those people switch to cars, you end up with it taking an hour to travel 1 mile by car.

It's almost as if they have busses for a reason.

cyberax 8 hours ago | parent [-]

First, these cities should be fixed by removing the traffic magnets. It's far past the point where we used the old obsolete ideology of trying to supply as much traffic capacity as possible.

But anyway, your statement is actually not true anywhere in the US except NYC. Even in Chicago, removing ALL the local transit and switching to 6-seater minivans will eliminate all the traffic issues.

toast0 43 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> First, these cities should be fixed by removing the traffic magnets.

If you remove the jobs and housing, traffic does get a lot better. But it's not much of a city without jobs and housing.

supertrope 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Car traffic magnets like highways inside urban cores? Or people traffic magnets like office buildings, colleges, sports stadiums, performing arts venues, shopping malls?

dfabulich 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

6-seater self-driving municipal minivans would be fantastic, too. (I would still call that a "bus", but I don't care what we call it.)

boredatoms 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Maybe it'd be more efficient for the transport to come at regular intervals though

Efficient for who, is the problem

Sayrus 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Focusing only on price, renting a beafy shared "cloud" computer is cheaper than buying one and changing every 5 years. It's not always an issue for idle hardware.

Cars are mostly idle and could be cheaper if shared. But why make them significantly cheaper when you can match the price and extract more profits?

bluGill 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Cars and personal computers have advantages over shared resources that often make them worth the cost. If you want your transport/compute in busy times you may find limitations. (ever got on the train and had to stand because there are no seats? Every had to wait for your compute job to start because they are all busy? Both of these have happened to me).

cyberax 9 hours ago | parent [-]

I ran the numbers, and for most non-braindead cities something like a fleet of 6-seater minivans will easily replace all of local transit.

And with just 6 people the overhead if an imperfect route and additional stops will be measured in minutes.

And of course, it's pretty easy to imagine an option to pay a bit more for a fully personal route.

dpkirchner 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This exists in a way -- I'd wager every city has a commercial service that will shuttle you to, say, the airport. They're not cheap, however.

cyberax 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Yep. And it's indeed a good model for this mode of transportation. And they ARE cheap.

For example, in Seattle I can get a shared airport shuttle for $40 with the pick-up/drop-off at my front door. And this is a fully private ADA-compliant commercial service, with a healthy profit margin, not a rideshare that offloads vehicle costs onto the driver. And a self-driving van can be even cheaper than that, since it doesn't need a driver.

Meanwhile, transit also costs around $40 per trip and takes at least 1 hour more. And before you tell me: "no way, the transit ticket is only $2.5", the TRUE cost of a transit ride in Seattle is more than $20. It's just that we're subsidizing most of it.

So you can see why transit unions are worrying about self-driving. It'll kill transit completely.

bluGill 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

you made too many false assumptions if you came up with those routes. Experts have run real numbers including looking at what happens in the real world. https://humantransit.org/category/microtransit - (as I write this you need to scroll to the second article to find the useful rebuttal of your idea)

cyberax 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah, yeah: "Major US Public Transit Union Questions “Microtransit”" Read it. Go on. It's pure bullshit.

The _only_ issue with the old "microtransit" is the _driver_. Each van ends up needing on average MORE drivers than it moves passengers. It does solve the problem of throughput, though.

But once the driver is removed, this problem flips on its head. Each regular bus needs around 4 drivers for decent coverage. It's OK-ish only when the average bus load is at least 15-20 people. It's still much more expensive and polluting than cars, but not crazily so.

bluGill 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Scroll down to the other articles as I said in the first place.

self driving changes some things, but there are a lot of other points in the many article linked from there that don't change.

cyberax 7 hours ago | parent [-]

This article is just a bunch of propaganda. You can tell that by the picture with people in the shape of a bus next to the line of cars. Every time you see it, you can immediately blacklist the author and ignore whatever they are saying about cars.

Can you guess why?

Hint: think about the intervals between buses and how you should represent them to stay truthful. And that buses necessarily move slower than cars. And that passengers will waste some time due to non-optimal routes and transfers. And that passengers will waste some time because they need to walk to the station.

So back to my point, can you tell me EXACTLY what I should read in that article? Point out the paragraph, please.

brookst 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> But why make them significantly cheaper when you can match the price and extract more profits?

Even better — charge 10% less and corner the market! As long as nobody charges 10% less than you…

theLiminator 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Cars are mostly idle and could be cheaper if shared. But why make them significantly cheaper when you can match the price and extract more profits?

Yeah, this would rely on robust competition.

nradov 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Nah, I don't want to share my car with anyone. It's my own personal space where I can keep some of my stuff and set it up exactly the way I want.

recursive 9 hours ago | parent [-]

That's how some people feel about airplanes. Presumably you're not one of them. For some people, the inconvenience of being responsible for a car would outweigh the benefit of setting up their stuff inside of one.

nradov 4 hours ago | parent [-]

It's not even an inconvenience. I like my cars. Dealing with ride hailing services (autonomous or not) is certainly far more inconvenient than owning a car (unless maybe you're stuck living somewhere without convenient parking).

bluGill 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

For the vast majority of people who own a car, continuing to own the car will remain the better deal. Most people need their car during "rush hour", so there isn't any savings from sharing, and worse some people have "high standards" and so will demand the rental be a clean car nicer than you would accept - thus raising the costs (particularly if you drive used cars) Any remaining argument for a shared car dies when you realize that you can leave your things in the car, and you never have to wait.

For the rest - many of them live in a place where not enough others will follow the same system and so they will be forced to own a car just like today. If you live in a not dense area but still manage to walk/bike almost everywhere (as I do), renting a car is on paper cheaper the few times when you need a car - but in practice you don't know about that need several weeks in advance and so they don't have one they can rent to you. Even if you know you will need the car weeks in advance, sometimes they don't have one when you arrive.

If you live in a very dense area such that you almost regularly use transit (but sometimes walk, bike), but need a car for something a few times per year, then not owning a car makes sense. In this case the density means shared cars can be a viable business model despite not being used very much.

In short what you say sound insightful, but reality of how cars are used means it won't happen for most car owners.

jtbayly 10 hours ago | parent [-]

> sometimes they don't have one when you arrive.

Or, if they are Hertz, they might have one but refuse to give it to you. This happened to my wife. In spite of payment already being made to Hertz corporate online, the local agent wouldn't give up a car for a one-way rental. Hertz corporate was less than useless, telling us their system said was a car available, and suggesting we pay them hundreds of dollars again and go pick it up. When I asked the woman from corporate whether she could actually guarantee we would be given a car, she said she couldn't. When I suggested she call the local agent, she said she had no way to call the local office. Unbelievable.

Since it was last minute, there were... as you said, no cars available at any of the other rental companies. So we had to drive 8 hours to pick her up. Then 8 hours back, which was the drive she was going to make in the rental car in the first place.

Hertz will hurts you.

Matheus28 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I personally would have changed it to a round-trip then just returned the car to the other Hertz location and let them figure it out.

bluGill 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Hertz this time, but things like that have happened with every rental company I know of.

Larrikin 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This is the nightmare scenario for me. A forever subscription for the usage of a car.

Subscription for self driving will almost be a given with so many bad actors in tech nowadays, but never even being allowed to own the car is even worse.

dddgghhbbfblk 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think this is purely psychological. The notion of paying for usage of some resource that you don't own is really rather mundane when you get down to it.

Larrikin 8 hours ago | parent [-]

One mean tweet and your self driving subscription is taken away is way better than one mean tweet and your car is taken away.

bluGill 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Subscription for changes to maps and the law makes sense. I'd also pay for the latest safety improvements (but they better be real improvements). However they are likely to add a number of unrelated things and I object to those.

jtbayly 10 hours ago | parent [-]

How do maps changes make sense to subscribe to when they are on OSM?

And what do you even mean by subscription to changes to the law?

bluGill 9 hours ago | parent [-]

If OSM is up to date - many places it is very outdated. (others it is very good).

Law - when a government changes the driving laws. Government can be federal (I have driven to both Canada and Mexico. Getting to Argentina is possible though I don't think it has ever been safe. Likewise it is possible to drive over the North Pole to Europe), state (or whatever the country calls their equivalent). When a city changes the law they put up signs, but if a state passes a law I'm expected to know even if I have never driven in that state before. Right turn on red laws are the only ones I can think of where states are different - but they are likely others.

Laws also cover new traffic control systems that may not have been in the original program. If the self driving system can't figure out the next one (think roundabout) then it needs to be updated.

crazygringo 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That's the point of self-driving fleets. Or maybe a special category of leased vehicles.

This is about a self-driving car you own.

starik36 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I think part of the issue in California at least is that you must have insurance. You gonna get a giant fine if you don't.