If you predict a crash every month and it happens after 2 years... can we call you a visionary?

Timing is obviously always the issue. When Greenspan talked about irrational exuberance '96 in regards to the .com bubble, the Nasdaq proceeded to go up almost another 4x in price and it didn't crash for 3 more years.

I know the question is tongue-in-cheek, but I think it’s a fascinating question, so I’ll take it seriously. If you predict the crash and it happens two years later, i think you basically cannot profit off that guess, so I’d say no. Although i haven’t provided data for the two-year claim, there certainly exists some period N for which the prediction no longer pays off, given a fixed drop. But if you can predict it 6 months in advance, you probably could profit! I think a certain amount of annoying repetition is fine for profitability.

Yes and thank you in advance

There's a real estate YouTube channel that's been calling for a real estate downturn for like 8 years (pre-Pandemic). Eventually they'll be right.