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mellosouls a day ago

I (like I'm sure many others) predicted it in 2007 and hedged against it by getting a 10 year fixed mortgage at then-current rates on the basis that rates would go sky high as they had in earlier recessions in the UK.

They plummeted to next-to-zero, and in addition to the injury I had to endure the insult of the people who hadn't seen it coming gloating about their low standard variable rates.

Ofc I clearly didn't have much real economic understanding but I guess I am saying that beyond normal common financial sense (the lack of which at scale leads to these situations) which you should be using anyway, we don't really know which way the wind is blowing, and what the exact consequences will be.

dh2022 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Why you could not refinance when the rates went to 0%? In the US a lot of people did that in 2009/2010 and then again during COVID

sokka_h2otribe 18 hours ago | parent [-]

Refinancing and loans work differently outside of the U.S. what I don't remember is exactly how. If I recall, you can't refinance without paying

marcyb5st 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Well, you can go to another bank so that they can cover your mortgage and open a new one with new rates/conditions.

That you can do anywhere as long as you have a collateral/guarantor.

stockresearcher 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Prepayment penalties are illegal for the vast majority of loans that consumers can get in the US, which makes it a no-brainer to refinance any time the payment saving exceeds the cost of writing a new loan.

The Trump admin has floated the idea of allowing prepayment penalties in home mortgages, BTW.

dh2022 15 hours ago | parent [-]

Would you mind posting a link where Trump wanted to allow prepayment penalties? This sounds unbelievable.

Every home owner in the US would be against it (especially the ones who got their mortgages in the past two years at relatively high interest rates).

stockresearcher 15 hours ago | parent [-]

Crap, I was wrong. Bill Ackman is trying to convince Bessent to do it. So while it may happen, it isn’t coming from inside the admin.

One argument is that it could allow for lower rates, BTW. (This is true, it very well could).

And also, if it happened it would be for newly issued mortgages. Existing mortgages have language in the contract that you couldn’t just unilaterally change

dh2022 14 hours ago | parent [-]

How would prepayment penalties lower interest rates ? I really do not see how.

phil21 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The same way callable bonds command a higher interest rate than non-callable do. If the bond holder can just decide that tomorrow it’s cheaper for them to pay off the bond vs pay me the coupon on it, it’s worth less to me as a buyer. I lose if interest rates go lower (bond is paid early) or higher (I am now holding a bond worth less than a newly issued one).

If you look through the bond market you will sometimes see bonds issued by the same company or agency both as callable and non-callable, the callable bonds are usually .5-1% lower even when issued on the same date.

stockresearcher 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Your lender definitely wants to get paid back, but they don’t necessarily want to get paid back right now. Because then they have a pile of money and they need to find something to do with it.

Consumers have a tendency to pay loans back early when the bank doesn’t have any more profitable alternatives. Consumers also have a tendency to NOT pay loans back early when the bank does have more profitable alternatives.

But you know that the first situation is worse for the bank than the second situation. So they do account for this, to a degree, when they give you a loan. In theory they would be willing to give you a lower interest rate if you gave up your prepayment option. In theory. In reality? Who knows.

hirako2000 10 hours ago | parent [-]

Sounds right but another big factor is to get some predictability.

Demand for mortgage varies over time, regulations change. It's a long term product, banks like to know with high certainty that when someone signs up it will be X earned over a period, not maybe X minus we don't know over an unknown period.

They are in the business of capital efficiency. Lack of control makes capital less efficient, or at least more expensive to keep efficient.

Overpayments (in the UK) are often not allowed, when they are, the borrower needs to arrange it when the loan is taken, and for a fee.

Refinancing is a right, but the fine prints told borrowers at what penalty.

tonyedgecombe a day ago | parent | prev [-]

I remember the opposite, just before we left the ERM (European Exchange Rate Mechanism). Interest rates hit 15% and one of my colleagues was gloating about how he had just taken on a fixed rate mortgage. A few days later we left and interest rates plummeted.